Hawaii, an island state that is rarely directly affected by tropical cyclones, is preparing for the third hurricane in a little over a month to approach its shores.
On Wednesday, Tropical Storm Nolo became the latest storm to form during an already very active Pacific hurricane season. Its ultimate path was still uncertain, but forecasters warned that it could rapidly intensify into a destructive hurricane as it rolls toward the Big Island.
Nolo could affect areas that were hit hard by Hurricane Lala in August, said Stephen Parker, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Honolulu.
“Folks there are still very much in the recovery phase, and obviously this is not what anybody would want,” he said.
Through Friday, the storm is likely to move north before eventually turning west. When it makes that turn will dictate how much the residents of Hawaii feels its effects, such as strong winds and heavy rain.
Even among expert hurricane forecasters, there was uncertainty on Wednesday about how close the storm will get to Hawaii and what intensity it might reach before it finally turns west.
If the system “comes a little bit farther north or stays a little bit longer,” rainfall totals will increase, Mr. Parker said. In that case, there would be the potential for more than 30 inches of rain to fall and even up to 50 inches in some isolated areas, he said. He emphasized those totals were “not the most likely scenario right now.”
It is possible that the storm could approach the Big Island’s southern shore or even make landfall, similar to Lala, Mr. Parker said. That would be a worst-case scenario, bringing the core of the strongest winds dangerously close to land.
In the best-case scenario, the storm would take a sharp left turn early and move directly west, which could reduce rainfall totals. Still, even if the storm stays relatively far south, it could bring heavy precipitation, measured in feet instead of inches, to portions of the Big Island and Maui.
During Lala, many places recorded almost their entire expected monthly rainfall in just a day or two, leading to flooding and mudflows that destroyed communities. The highest totals exceeded three feet, falling mostly within a space of 15 hours. Nolo could produce similar effects across some of the same regions.
Based on the National Hurricane Center’s forecast on Wednesday afternoon, 15 to 20 inches of rain could fall on the Big Island, with isolated amounts of 35 inches. This rainfall could produce catastrophic, life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.
Mr. Parker noted that while the region’s lava rock and soil are porous, recent rains meant it will not take much more to saturate the ground.
“Once the ground becomes wet and saturated, which it will do early in this system, any heavy rain is going to immediately run off,” Mr. Parker said. “And the slope of the terrain is pretty sharp in places. So it starts coming downhill at a decent clip. It does a lot of damage that way, as everybody saw with Lala.”
Forecasters also anticipate rainfall totals of five to 10 inches across Maui, with maximum amounts of 20 inches, and up to six inches on some of the other islands.
If Nolo becomes a hurricane and comes within 50 miles of Hawaii, this would be the first year on record with three hurricanes passing that close to the state, according to Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University.
Before this season, the last year with even as many as two hurricanes tracking within 50 miles of Hawaii was 1959.
“It’s getting to be a heck of a season, that’s for sure,” Mr. Parker said.
Across the Central and Eastern Pacific, the hurricane season has been incredibly busy. Much of the increased activity, including the rapid intensification of Hurricane Polo near Mexico, is because of the current strength of El Niño, the movement of extremely warm ocean temperatures eastward in the Pacific that changes weather patterns worldwide.
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