Sean Duffy, the secretary of transportation, on Tuesday refused to say when he would roll back the restrictions on flights at 40 busy airports, even with an apparent end to the government shutdown on the horizon.
Instead, he offered a sharp warning: If the House did not follow the Senate’s lead and pass the bill quickly, not only would the flying public experience major delays and cancellations by the weekend, but some airlines might even ground their fleets.
“In my conversations with the airlines and with the F.A.A., and what we’re seeing with air traffic controllers — we feel there’s going to be significant issues in the airspace,” Mr. Duffy said, referring to the Federal Aviation Administration, at a news conference at O’Hare International Airport in Chicago.
If the government does not open soon, he added, “you might have airlines that will say, ‘We’re going to ground our planes. We’re not going to keep flying anymore,’” predicting that such a disruption could happen even before the Thanksgiving travel rush, perhaps as soon as this weekend.
Throughout the shutdown, Mr. Duffy has warned of impending chaos, drawing rebukes from Democrats that his forecasts were more about pressuring them to end the shutdown than offering impartial assessments of the air-travel system.
Last week, Mr. Duffy and the F.A.A. ordered mandatory flight reductions at 40 airports nationwide. The cuts, which began with a 4 percent reduction on Friday and were slated to rise to 10 percent by the end of the week, were based on the F.A.A.’s analysis of data, Mr. Duffy has said, and were imposed to alleviate strain on air traffic controllers, who have been increasingly struggling with absences in their ranks.
On Tuesday, Mr. Duffy said he would reverse the restrictions only if that data — which includes the frequency of close calls between planes and of delays forced by shortages of air traffic controllers — improved.
Controllers have been forced to work without pay through the shutdown, and have missed two full paychecks since the funding lapse began. The lack of pay has accelerated retirements, Mr. Duffy said, and has forced some newer controllers with lower salaries and smaller savings accounts to seek outside income.
The resulting shortfall of controllers led to an uptick in delays caused by low staffing, known as staffing triggers, at some control towers, according to Mr. Duffy and the controllers’ union, exacerbating already crippling problems. For years, most certified controllers have been forced to work overtime to compensate for vacancies in more than 20 percent of their positions.
Last weekend, a high number of staffing triggers — 81 on Saturday alone — signaled how much worse it could get if the shutdown dragged into the busy Thanksgiving holiday travel season. But on Tuesday, there were signs of marked improvement, Mr. Duffy said, with only four staffing triggers as of 4 p.m.
“I think our air traffic controllers are seeing an end to the shutdown and are feeling more hopeful,” Mr. Duffy said, adding, “If the House does their work tomorrow, I think we’re well on our way to getting to more normal air travel, less cancellations.”
Mr. Duffy said that air traffic controllers would receive approximately 70 percent of their missed pay within 24 to 48 hours of the shutdown ending, and the rest within a week. He also endorsed President Trump’s proposal, issued on social media on Monday, to reward controllers who never missed a shift during the shutdown with a $10,000 bonus.
“Brilliant,” Mr. Duffy said of Mr. Trump’s proposal, adding that perhaps the controllers with perfect attendance “should come to the White House and he should present them with their checks.”
But Mr. Duffy did not endorse Mr. Trump’s simultaneous exhortation to air traffic controllers who had missed shifts during the shutdown to quit.
“I’m trying to bring more air traffic controllers in,” Mr. Duffy said. “I’m not trying to take controllers out.”
He said he reserved his concern for controllers who called in sick before even missing a first paycheck. “I’m concerned about their dedication,” Mr. Duffy said, adding: “If we have controllers who were systemically not doing their job, we will take action.”
Karoun Demirjian is a breaking news reporter for The Times.
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