President Donald Trump explained during the GOP’s midterm convention in Dallas why “tariff” is now his fifth-favorite word. “I said tariff is my favorite word, and the fake news went crazy,” he joked on Wednesday. “They said, ‘What about love? What about wife? What about God? Religion? Family?’ So I moved tariff down to fifth.”
Republicans on the ballot in November don’t seem to share the president’s affinity for raising taxes on imports. Five Senate nominees from battleground states did not mention tariffs during their speeches at the two-day event: Ken Paxton (Texas), Jon Husted (Ohio), Michael Whatley (North Carolina), Mike Collins (Georgia) and Mike Rogers (Michigan). Neither did Vice President JD Vance, for that matter.
During his prime-time speech, Trump claimed that his tariffs have generated “trillions of dollars” in new revenue. “It’s making us much richer than we ever thought,” he said. In fact, net customs revenue raised by new tariffs since Trump returned to office is about $132.5 billion, according to the Penn Wharton Budget Model. Nevertheless, Trump said the imaginary tariff trillions will cover Republicans’ sending $5,000 checks to every American adult if they hold the House and Senate in November. Such payments would cost an estimated $1.2 trillion next year.
Meanwhile, on the campaign trail, the tariffs are a liability for Republicans maneuvering through the protectionist minefield laid by their leader. That’s especially true in states that border Canada. Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) has called Trump’s trade war with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney a “huge mistake” and took credit for convincing the administration to exempt key products, such as road salt and cement, from retaliatory duties.
In neighboring New Hampshire, former Republican senator John E. Sununu is trying to win his old job back by emphasizing that tariffs should be temporary and limited. Citing the high cost of housing construction, he said that building materials should be exempted. “If we’re going to have tariffs, set them at a reasonable rate,” Sununu said recently, adding that “Congress has a big role to play.”
Rep. Chris Pappas, the Democratic nominee for New Hampshire’s open seat, attacked Sununu during his victory speech after Tuesday’s primary for backing Trump’s tariffs, which he said are “killing our small businesses and driving up costs on everything from lumber to back-to-school supplies to groceries.”
Collins and Sununu didn’t attend the GOP convention. Neither did Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska), who is facing a tough contest for a third term.
In Michigan, Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers has tied himself more closely to the Trump agenda than his Northeastern counterparts have. He maintains that some of the tariffs on Canada are “necessary,” while emphasizing that the spat with Ottawa needs to be resolved.
In Iowa, where Democrats are making a serious play at flipping a Senate seat and the governor’s mansion, the whiplash from Trump’s trade policy has frustrated farmers and ranchers. But the president’s decision last month to peel back tariffs on ground beef, in an attempt to lower prices for consumers, led GOP Senate candidate Ashley Hinson to distance herself from that move.
Democratic Senate nominee Josh Turek has capitalized on the chaos. “First the tariffs that drove up input costs and wrecked the markets,” he said last month. “Then the $20 billion bailout to Argentina. Then a senseless war that continues to drive up the price of diesel and fertilizer. And now this.”
Even among Trump’s most loyal supporters, tariffs are a touchy topic. While the president still enjoys popularity among Republicans, only 50 percent of MAGA supporters strongly approve of his handling of tariffs, according to an August Economist-YouGov poll.
The gathering in Dallas was aimed at motivating the Republican base to vote in the midterms. “Pretend that I’m on the ballot,” Trump said on Wednesday. He returned for an encore on Thursday night: “You know what happens if you don’t vote? You go to hell,” he said. Trump may learn the hard way in November that tariffs will not motivate conservatives to go to the polls.
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