A handful of U.S. states with some of the most competitive congressional races in the country are caught in the crosshairs of President Donald Trump’s escalating trade war with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney.
While the average American may not feel the tariffs — all told, they affect just 6 percent of $715 billion in annual cross-border trade — key industries in Maine, Michigan, Iowa, Ohio and Pennsylvania are likely to feel the added costs.
That may present an unwelcome complication for Republicans running in competitive House and Senate races in those states, multiple GOP analysts said, distracting from their preferred economic message of lower income taxes, new child investment accounts and tax breaks for businesses, seniors, overtime pay and tips.
“Donald Trump was elected in part to bring down inflation and juice the economy,” said Whit Ayres, a Republican political consultant in Washington. “Anything that works opposite of those goals is not helpful for any Republican running this year.”
Brent Buchanan, founder of the Republican polling firm Cygnal, said the trade war could offer candidates an opportunity to separate themselves from the president, whose approval ratings have dropped as gas prices have risen as a result of his war with Iran.
“With this being so salient to the states closer to the Canadian border, it’s a way for them to say, ‘I’m standing up for you — above the president, above Congress, above Canada, above anybody,’” Buchanan said.
While Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) has taken that approach, calling Trump’s trade war with Canada a “mistake,” other candidates in competitive races have been more cautious. And at least one Republican running in a competitive district has wholly embraced Trump’s trade policy.
Canada has been “jamming our dairy industry for a long period of time,” Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Wisconsin), whose race for reelection is considered a toss-up, said in an interview at this week’s Republican midterm convention in Dallas. “The time for the American farmer and my Wisconsin farmers to get worked over by Canada, those days are over.”
The White House argued that Trump’s tariffs on Canada will help American workers, especially in Midwestern states where he has won big.
“America’s heartland states like Michigan and Iowa have been some of the worst hit by unfair foreign trade practices, including by Canada, and were resoundingly won by President Trump because of his pledge to put American workers, farmers, and businesses first,” White House spokesman Kush Desai said in a statement.
Adding that Canada rejected “the best trade deal” of any U.S. trading partner, Desai said: “President Trump will never waver from putting Americans and America First.”
The United States and Canada have been strong allies and top trading partners for decades. Proximity and favorable trade policies between the two nations have fostered deeply integrated industries across northern states that swap energy, parts and supplies with nearby Canadian provinces. Several Michigan auto suppliers and Maine lumber companies have locations on both sides of the border. Iowa has close agricultural trade ties with Canada, including exports of farm machinery.
The tit-for-tat trade war between the two nations ramped up in July, when Trump announced that he would impose 50 percent tariffs on some Canadian goods — a move the administration cast as a response to Canadian retaliation to Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs imposed in April 2025.
The new 50 percent tariffs took effect late last month after negotiations between the two countries collapsed; alcohol, dairy products and a long list of other Canadian imports were hit with the added fee.
Canada retaliated on Sept. 8 with new tariffs on U.S. goods, including aluminum, dairy, agricultural equipment, plastics, paper products and appliances. That night, Trump announced he would ban the import of some Canadian alcohol, motorcycles, molasses and other products beginning Sept. 29.
The latest import ban is unlikely to have much effect on either country’s economy, Stephen Brown, a chief economist at the research firm Capital Economics, wrote in an analyst note Wednesday. But the move shows that recent measures are “about inflicting economic pain rather than raising revenue” and increases the risk that the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) — the trade agreement Trump brokered in his first term — will break down entirely.
The escalation also indicates that the tariffs may remain in place longer than analysts initially expected, Brown wrote, noting that the Canadian tariffs “appear to have been chosen in a way to disproportionately affect the swing states ahead of the midterms.”
Canada consumes more than a quarter of all exports from Maine, Michigan, Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, according to 2025 U.S. Census Bureau data. Maine, Alaska, Iowa and Michigan are also major importers of Canadian goods.
Michigan, Maine, Ohio, Iowa and Alaska are home to highly competitive Senate races. Texas, which also has a competitive Senate race, does more than $69 billion in trade annually with Canada, though it’s a small share of the state’s overall imports and exports. Many of the affected states also have competitive House or gubernatorial races.
Michigan, which did more than $66 billion in trade with Canada last year, has a closely intertwined manufacturing sector that regularly exchanges products with its neighboring province, Ontario.
Canadian tariffs on American steel and aluminum, nuts and bolts, rods for steering wheels and other small parts can boost costs for manufacturers who are already worn out after years of supply chain disruptions from the covid-19 pandemic and changing federal policy on electric vehicles.
“I think we reached fatigue about a month ago,” said Glenn Stevens, executive director of MichAuto, an advocacy group for the state’s auto industry. “It’s a difficult business.”
Maine’s lobster industry was spared a big blow when Canada removed seafood from its initial list of tariffed products. But the state will be hit with Canadian tariffs on plywood, paper and other forest products.
Patrick Woodcock, president and CEO of the Maine State Chamber of Commerce, said Maine businesses appreciate any administration trying to achieve strong trade deals. But as in Michigan, Maine has developed an integrated economy with its northern neighbor over generations of swapping raw materials with processing plants on both sides of the border.
“We have this understanding that there’s a winner” in a trade war, Woodcock said. “And for some of these industries, neither side wins. The more this escalates, I think that’s going to reveal itself.”
In Iowa, Canada’s tariffs on farm equipment can affect the state’s processors and manufacturers, said Sunghun Lim, an economist at Iowa State University specializing in agricultural trade and policy.
Though Iowa’s major exports to Canada — soybeans, pork and corn — are not subject to tariffs, there’s growing concern in farm country that the trade friction could lead to the collapse of USMCA, said Christopher Pudenz, an economist at the Iowa Farm Bureau. “This trade agreement that has been so beneficial to Iowa’s agricultural producers could be fundamentally changed in a negative way,” he said.
GOP candidates have responded differently to the pressure. Collins, who faces her toughest race in years against former state Senate president Troy Jackson (D), has openly opposed the Trump administration’s tariffs. She said she has also worked with trade officials in both countries to get Canadian road salt and cement excluded from U.S. tariffs and Maine seafood removed from Canadian tariffs.
Michigan Senate candidate Mike Rogers, who is running for an open seat against Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, has been mildly critical. In late August, Rogers wrote in a post on X that Trump “is right to put America First” but that “trade isn’t one-size-fits-all.” He pledged to work with Trump “to broker a fair deal with Canada” that supports Michigan farms, automakers and manufacturing.
For Republican candidates, the chaotic trade war “injects an issue they probably thought they never had to deal with,” said John Truscott, founder of Michigan PR firm Truscott Rossman and who once served as a spokesperson for Michigan Gov. John Engler (R).
“As a candidate, when you want to be on offense on things,” Truscott said. “This adds a vulnerability.”
Luis Melgar and Jarrell Dillard contributed to this report.
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