After weeks when Middle East diplomacy seemed dead in the water, a rare meeting between Iran and its Persian Gulf neighbors has renewed hope for a deal that could fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Foreign ministers from the Gulf Cooperation Council—which is comprised of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman—will meet their Iranian counterpart on Monday, sources told the Financial Times.
Brent crude oil prices tumbled 2.9% to $104.52 a barrel on Friday.
It would be the first such gathering since the U.S. and Israel launched their war on Tehran and also comes as Oman and Iran seek to build support on a deal the two countries have been crafting to temporarily manage traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, the report added.
For now, the U.S. and Iran have been locked in a stalemate over the global energy chokepoint. The U.S. naval blockade is preventing Iran from exporting oil via its ports, while Iranian drone and missile attacks are preventing other exporters from returning to prewar levels.
But an agreement on the Iran-Oman shipping scheme wouldn’t fully reopen the strait. Tehran has insisted the U.S. must first fulfill terms of their earlier ceasefire deal reached in June.
“For Iran and Oman it is about getting the GCC on board to try and use that to get the U.S. to lift its blockade on Iranian ports,” a source told the FT, while the GCC wants to ensure that “whatever is agreed is temporary and they are able to get ships in and out.”
GCC states are wary about agreeing to anything that would recognize any Iranian control over Hormuz. But the equation may be changing as Iran tries to turn the tables on the U.S. and its allies.
The U.S. military has been helping non-Iranian oil sneak through the Strait of Hormuz, bringing exports from the region to around two-thirds of prewar levels.
While that still represents a significant shortfall, the U.S.-guided oil flows weakened Iran’s ability to use the strait as political leverage. At the same time, the naval blockade is crushing Iran’s economy.
To regain the upper hand, Iran recently launched fresh missile salvos at U.S. bases in the region, attacked U.S. warships, and helped its Houthi allies in Yemen seize territory near the Bab al-Mandab Strait that links the Red Sea and the Arabia Sea.
After Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab al-Mandab Strait became a vital bypass for Saudi Arabia, which diverted oil from the Gulf to the Red Sea via its East-West Pipeline. But the Houthis reportedly attacked the pipeline and Saudi tankers in recent days too.
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While facing threats to its oil exports, Saudi Arabia isn’t getting much support from its own allies.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman called President Donald Trump twice on Thursday, asking for U.S. strikes against the Houthis, but was turned down, sources told Axios.
Instead, U.S. officials said the Trump administration will provide intelligence on the Houthis and targeting data. U.S. forces will remain focused on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz—and steer clear of fighting on an additional front, the report added.
Saudi Arabia also has a defense pact with Pakistan, which has deployed troops near the Saudi border with Yemen. But the South Asian country also depends on energy shipments that transit through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea.
So officials in Islamabad are reluctant to antagonize Iran and are worried the Houthi threat could suck Pakistan into a war. Pakistan’s foreign ministry has said no military response to the Houthi attacks is being discussed.
And according to Reuters, Pakistan’s army chief stressed diplomatic efforts to de-escalate across all fronts in a call with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi on Thursday.
“Pakistan is trying to keep a low profile in the Saudi-Houthi conflict because Pakistan’s own stakes are high,” a Pakistani government official told Reuters. “It does not want to spoil relations with Iran.”
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