Leaders of a group of emerging economies will gather in New Delhi on Saturday as wars and soaring oil prices test the unity of their coalition that seeks to reshape a global order dominated by the United States.
The summit of BRICS nations brings together countries like China, Russia, Brazil and India that share an interest in reducing the world’s dependence on Western institutions. But it also includes countries like the United Arab Emirates, a U.S. security partner that has come under attack by Iran, a fellow BRICS member.
Iran wants to show that Western sanctions have not left it isolated, even as it digs into a war with the United States that has severely restricted the crucial Strait of Hormuz route for oil and other commodities. Its fellow BRICS members, however, have a strong interest in stable energy flows and lower prices.
For the host, Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India, the summit is a delicate geopolitical balancing act. India, which has long seen China as a rival, is alone among the founding group members in also wanting to reduce Beijing’s sway in world affairs. Even as Mr. Modi tries to rally BRICS partners like Russia, he cannot afford to be overtly anti-American.
China’s leader, Xi Jinping, will visit India for the first time in seven years, along with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, President Masoud Pezeshkian of Iran and the other leaders of the group.
Nearly Half the World, But Little in Common
BRICS stands for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, the group’s earliest members. The coalition expanded in recent years to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, the Emirates and Indonesia. Ten other nations joined as so-called partner countries.
The member-states account for nearly half of the world’s population and almost 40 percent of global economic output.
But as a group, they have struggled to agree on a clear common objective.
China, Russia and Iran see the group as an opportunity to present an alternate world order that upends U.S. dominance.
Other members have closer ties with the United States. The Emirates, for instance, is the site of several U.S. military bases, while Egypt receives U.S. military aid and is a key partner to Washington in the Middle East.
Sergei A. Ryabkov, Russia’s deputy foreign minister, told the news agency Tass this week that the group was divided over the ongoing war in Iran.
He said that the issue could be a sticking point in discussions among leaders about the drafting of a final document. “And as of today, I cannot predict what the outcome will be,” he said.
Russia and Iran Use the Group to Show They Have Friends
For Iran, the summit will show that it maintains strong ties abroad, despite U.S. efforts to isolate it economically. BRICS members have helped sustain Iran as it copes with strict sanctions, especially China, which has bought the vast majority of Iranian oil in recent years.
Stronger ties with India, China and Russia could give Iran more leverage as it negotiates with the United States, said Hamidreza Azizi, senior Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group.
Still, Iran’s approach to the Strait of Hormuz will likely be a point of contention at the summit.
Since the war began, Iran has threatened and attacked ships crossing the strait, effectively closing off one of the world’s most important routes for oil and other key commodities. It will also have to convince its partners in the bloc that its stance will not disrupt their interests in the long run, Mr. Azizi said.
The summit is also an opportunity for Mr. Putin to show the West that he has powerful friends by his side.
“It’s the BRICS partners that have been most important in throwing Russia economic lifelines,” said Hanna Notte, the author of “We Shall Outlast Them,” a book about Russian foreign policy.
China has helped replace goods that Russia previously purchased from the West. India, too, supported Russia with crude oil purchases, and Brazil has bought Russian fertilizer.
There are signs of cracks, though: Earlier this month, Mr. Modi publicly urged Mr. Putin to end his war in Ukraine.
A Tool for China Before the Trump Summit
For China, the BRICS summit helps Mr. Xi project the idea that he has sway over a broad base of countries rather than the minority of rich countries led by Washington. That could strengthen his position as he prepares to meet Mr. Trump in Washington later this month.
“There is an important narrative for Xi here,” said Patricia Kim, an expert at the Brookings Institution and the author of the forthcoming book, “No Constraints: China’s Global Quest for Partners and Influence.”
“Beijing has spent years arguing that U.S.-led alliances and many of Washington’s competitive policies toward China reflect a ‘Cold War mentality’ and that U.S. and Western views should not be equated with those of the broader international community,” she said.
“BRICS gives Xi a platform to reinforce that argument.”
Some Nations Worry About Reliance on the U.S.
The summit is taking place at a time when the United States’ reliability as a security partner has come into question. Mr. Trump has threatened to leave NATO unless other allies meet his spending goals. The United States has stepped back from backing Ukraine financially in its war with Russia. And in the Middle East, U.S. allies see their own security undermined by the war with Iran.
The Emirates, for instance, still depends heavily on its alliances with the United States. But that relationship has not stopped Iran from attacking the country. Over the past six months, the U.A.E. air defenses have intercepted about 3,000 Iranian ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones.
The attacks have reinforced a view among Emirati officials that while Washington remains a crucial security partner, it cannot be the only one.
As Anwar Gargash, a diplomatic adviser to the Emirati president, said recently at a forum: “Our security is our first priority. When we depend entirely on others, we cannot always assume it will be their priority.”
It’s the Economy
For many members, the draw of BRICS is economic. The group has focused on a largely economic agenda, working to create a joint development bank, increase trade among its members and reduce its dependence on the U.S. dollar.
The BRICS’s New Development Bank, which is based in Shanghai, has lent the equivalent of billions of dollars to members and partner countries for infrastructure projects. Many see it as a more accessible source of financing than the World Bank or the International Monetary Fund.
South Africa, for example, sees BRICS less as a counterweight to western powers than as a platform for alternative options in the volatile global financial ecosystem, said Gustavo de Carvalho, an analyst at the South African Institute of International Affairs. “Having levels of security is important,” he said.
South Africa is likely to be focused on discussions around the development bank and local currency lending, Mr. de Carvalho said. He pointed to South Africa’s tapping of the New Development Bank for new lines of credit to fund infrastructure projects.
John Eligon, Rania Khaled, Ismaeel Naar and Berry Wang contributed reporting.
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