A dramatic season of closely watched political primaries is nearing its end. Tuesday night’s contests in New Hampshire — one of the final stops of the cycle — will set up key battles in the fight for control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate.
Voters in both major parties will choose their candidates for the Senate seat that will be left open by the retirement of Jeanne Shaheen, a Democrat who has served three terms. New Hampshire has not elected a Republican to the Senate since 2010, but the battle for her seat is expected to be tight.
On the Democratic side, Representative Chris Pappas, a darling of the state party’s political establishment, is trying to hold off a progressive challenger. On the Republican side, one former senator, John E. Sununu, is expected to cruise to victory over another former senator, Scott Brown.
The more suspenseful primaries could well play out in the state’s swingy First Congressional District, a classic House battleground. There, an acrimonious Democratic primary has turned into a test of the state’s political power brokers, while the Republican primary offers the season’s final test of President Trump’s endorsement.
Here’s what to watch on Tuesday night.
Does the state’s Democratic establishment still have the juice?
In the Democratic Senate primary, Mr. Pappas, a three-term congressman with the support of prominent state and national Democrats, including Senator Elizabeth Warren and former Vice President Kamala Harris, is facing a progressive challenge from Karishma Manzur, a medical scientist. She has not drawn much support from national stars of the left, but a closer than expected poll in the final weeks of the race has drawn fresh attention to it.
The bigger test of the state’s political establishment may be the one playing out in the Democratic primary for the First Congressional District. There, in the top tier of a crowded field, Stefany Shaheen, a daughter of Senator Shaheen, has been battling with Maura Sullivan, a former Marine who moved to New Hampshire in 2017 and lost a 2018 congressional primary to Mr. Pappas.
Ms. Shaheen held a two-digit polling lead earlier this year, but it has evaporated in recent months. She has begun attacking Ms. Sullivan for her out-of-state donors, while Ms. Sullivan has accused Ms. Shaheen of trading on her storied family name. A progressive candidate, Carleigh Beriont, is also running, hoping to consolidate the support of left-leaning Democrats after other candidates dropped out.
A loss for Ms. Shaheen would be a sign of the anti-establishment fervor gripping the Democratic base, as well as a rebuke to the New Hampshire old guard, which includes Senator Maggie Hassan and former Representative Carol Shea-Porter, who both endorsed Shaheen.
(In New Hampshire’s more Democratic-leaning Second Congressional District, the first-term Representative Maggie Goodlander, a Democrat, is facing a challenge from a progressive state representative, Paige Beauchemin. She has maintained a wide polling lead.)
Can Trump lift another pick to victory?
In the Republican primary for the First Congressional District, Anthony DiLorenzo, the owner of a chain of car dealerships and collision centers, has the support of Mr. Trump, who praised him on social media as a “very successful Businessman and Entrepreneur.”
But Hollie Noveletsky, the owner of an ironworks who has led some polls, has stayed in the race and worked to appeal to the MAGA grass roots by defending the president’s trade and immigration politics. (The field also includes State Representative Brian Cole.)
They predate Trump. How do they do in 2026?
Two of the leading Republicans on the ballot in New Hampshire on Tuesday came to prominence long before Ms. Trump transformed his party. They’ve tried to keep him at an arm’s length since, knowing that the MAGA brand is not a natural fit for New Hampshire.
Mr. Sununu is the son and brother of former New Hampshire governors. He served three terms in the House and was elected to the Senate in 2002 before losing to Ms. Shaheen in 2008. He has Mr. Trump’s endorsement in his primary against Mr. Brown. He has, however, criticized the president’s trade war with Canada and isn’t planning to attend the party’s midterm convention in Dallas this week.
Gov. Kelly Ayotte, a former state attorney general who was elected to the Senate in 2010 before losing narrowly in 2016 to Ms. Hassan, is up for re-election after resisting pressure from Mr. Trump to redraw New Hampshire’s congressional districts. She does not face serious primary challengers.
Is it curtains for Scott Brown?
When Mr. Brown won a Massachusetts Senate seat in a 2010 special election after the death of Senator Edward M. Kennedy, it was an upset victory that shocked the political world and complicated President Barack Obama’s plans to overhaul health care in the United States.
Mr. Brown’s career has been a winding road ever since. He lost re-election in 2012, to Ms. Warren. He moved to New Hampshire and lost a 2014 Senate race to Jeanne Shaheen. He served as Mr. Trump’s ambassador to New Zealand.
Now, he has mounted a lonely, long-shot Senate campaign, one that he promises will be his last, win or lose. A loss looks more likely, since polls show him trailing Mr. Sununu by as many as 40 points.
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