Surprisingly healthy employment data has tipped expectations for a rate hike at the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) meeting higher this week, with interest rate traders now placing the likelihood at 58.4%.
According to CME’s FedWatch, nearly 60% of investors are betting on a 25bps hike to 3.75% to 4%, with the remainder of bettors suggesting the Kevin Warsh-led central bank will instead announce a hold.
The renewed call for a hike comes courtesy of a Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report Friday, which showed that the U.S. economy added 162,000 jobs in August with the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1%.
Meanwhile, inflation data, the other side of the Fed’s two-pronged mandate, isn’t behaving as helpfully. The BLS’s latest report, released in mid-August, showed the all-items index for the past 12 months sat at 3.4%—well ahead of the FOMC’s 2% target. The next Consumer Price Index report is due to be released on Friday, but with supply-side shocks like the Middle East conflict and tariffs still rumbling on, analysts expect the data to further prove the need for a hike at the next FOMC meeting, which will conclude Sept. 16.
Macquarie’s David Doyle wrote in a Friday note: “While the timing remains uncertain, we move our baseline case for the first 25 bps hike to September [previously December]. We continue to anticipate a second 25 bps hike in 1Q27.”
Bank of America added it expects a hike next week with the U.S. macro team adding: “If August core [Personal Consumption Expenditures] prints at 0.24% m/m or higher, there is a good possibility we go into the September meeting with hike odds above 50%. In that scenario, a decision not to hike could raise questions about the Fed’s credibility, likely showing up in higher long-end yields.”
Yields moving higher, as they did after the last FOMC meeting in July, would likely undo the work that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has been actioning over the past few weeks with Treasury buybacks.
UBS added it expects two hikes this year, in September and December, though chief investment officer Mark Haefele suggests the context of a hike is more important than the move. He wrote this morning: “The important question is not whether rates move higher, but what is the backdrop against which they do. A Fed responding to U.S. economic strength is very different from a Fed responding to inflation problems. For portfolios, that distinction matters far more than the next policy meeting.”
Lobbying begins
The Trump camp is yet to land the base rate reduction it pushed the previous chairman, Jerome Powell, to enact.
President Donald Trump went to extraordinary lengths in his bid to secure an interest rate reduction. The administration’s campaign for a dovish narrative is to be expected, though perhaps not helpful to Warsh, Trump’s pick to lead the Fed. “Lower the interest rates because the U.S.A. is a much stronger credit than it was just a short time ago!” Trump wrote on Truth Social, a platform he owns, Friday afternoon.
The president also issued a new threat: If rates don’t come down, then he will stop the U.S. from trading with countries with which it has a trade deficit. “The Fed Board, with its great new leader, must get smart – BE PATRIOTS for a change,” the president continued. “High interest rates put the U.S.A. at a very unfair disadvantage, and I won’t allow that to happen!”
Vice President JD Vance echoed a similar sentiment, saying Trump was so determined to push rates down because it would help Americans afford a home. “We’re doing a lot of things to try to keep those interest rates down, but it would be nice to have some help from the Federal Reserve,” Vance said last week.
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