Congressional Republican leaders are betting their midterm strategy on putting Donald Trump front and center — even as a growing number of GOP lawmakers warn that leaning into the president could sink the party in November.
“Nobody better to turn out the base than President Trump,” House Majority Leader Steve Scalise told the Wall Street Journal, previewing the Trump-centric approach set to dominate an unusual midterm GOP convention in Dallas next week, where Trump will headline.
But other Republicans are sounding the alarm. Rep. Don Bacon, a retiring Nebraska Republican, pointed to Trump’s recent executive order renaming Lake Ontario “Lake America” as an unforced error.
“Some of the things he’s done, it smells like chaos, it smells destructive,” Bacon said, calling the move “silly.” He has urged competitive-race candidates to break with Trump on issues like tariffs, despite the risk of provoking him.
Democrats need just three seats to retake the House and four for the Senate, and nonpartisan analysts have shifted more races toward Democrats over the summer. Cook Political Report founder Charlie Cook wrote that for Republicans, “the three most plausible outcomes are that it will be bad, really bad, or truly horrible.”
Rep. Stephanie Bice (R-OK) made headlines after a recording, first obtained by the Bulwark, captured her warning student Republicans that GOP voters could stay home or defect to Democrats. She relayed a business executive’s complaint of “Trump fatigue,” though she later said her comments were taken out of context.
Adding to the frustration, Trump’s super PAC, MAGA Inc., has yet to spend much of its $400 million war chest on the midterms, according to lawmakers and strategists. A spokesperson said the group is “committed to retaining and building the GOP majorities” but declined to detail its plans.
Trump has told Republican candidates he’ll campaign for them “100 percent all the way until November.” Retiring Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-WA), who voted to impeach Trump in 2021, called voter exhaustion “a legitimate concern,” warning Republicans may be less motivated than Democrats this year.
Not all Republicans are hedging, however. Rep. Derrick Van Orden, defending a swing Wisconsin seat, said he won’t distance himself from Trump “even if it costs him his seat.” Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-NJ) struck a middle path, saying he’d welcome Trump on the trail while acknowledging disagreements. “There are some things I absolutely disagree with.”
House Speaker Mike Johnson remains bullish, citing Trump’s record on taxes and border security. “We’ve got a strong hands-on president, and his record speaks for itself,” he said.
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