Republican senators are increasingly convinced the battle for Senate control will be decided in the Midwest, and that agricultural voters angered by tariffs, fuel costs and beef imports could hand Democrats the majority.
Democrats need a net gain of four seats to flip the chamber, and strategists say that becomes attainable if they capture Republican-held seats in Ohio and Iowa while holding Michigan, then find a fourth seat in North Carolina or a longer-shot state, reported Politico.
“He’s in serious trouble in farm country,” Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-ND) said of President Donald Trump. “He being Trump — and Trump is us. I’m not very optimistic.”
Farm-state Republicans point to a combination of tariffs, expensive diesel and fertilizer, and administration moves to ease tariffs on imported beef as driving frustration among agricultural voters who have historically backed the party.
Cramer said the beef issue in particular has infuriated producers. “The one ag producer making money for a change and you shrink his revenue,” he said.
Democratic candidates say they’re hearing similar frustration on the trail. Josh Turek, running for Senate in Iowa against Rep. Ashley Hinson, has described conditions facing farmers as a second farm crisis. Adam Hamilton, a former pastor challenging Sen. Roger Marshall in Kansas, said many Republican voters are reluctant to criticize Trump directly but expect their senators to push back on policies hurting them.
Iowa, which Trump carried three times but which hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since 2008, is considered a bellwether for whether the discontent extends beyond reliably blue territory. Republicans are also watching unusually competitive polling in Kansas, Nebraska and parts of the South, along with Maine and Alaska, states with economies tied closely to trade and fuel prices.
Adding to the frustration is the hundreds of millions of dollars sitting in GOP-aligned groups, much of it controlled by Trump, that officials say hasn’t been deployed to help endangered incumbents. Republicans have privately complained the president is focused more on personal priorities than defending the party’s majorities.
Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) said she has urged Trump to reconsider his approach toward Canada, a major trading partner for border states. “I would remind him that Canada is our friend, our closest ally and our biggest trading partner,” Collins said, adding that damaging that relationship would hurt Maine and other states along the border.
Republican strategists have compared the environment to 2006 and 2018, both rough midterms for the party in power, with uncertainty over which precedent fits this November.
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