CARACAS, Venezuela — Five months into the massive U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is feeling the pressure but refusing to go into exile, people close to his government say, opting instead to dig in and wait out President Donald Trump’s threats of an imminent attack.
The authoritarian socialist, increasingly fearful of a U.S. strike on critical Venezuelan infrastructure or an attempt on his life, has tightened security and limited his public appearances, but his inner circle shows no signs of imminent collapse, according to the people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity out of concern for reprisals.
With the potential growing for either a military escalation or a prolonged standoff, intermediaries close to both sides are scrambling to identify an off-ramp.
The Trump administration is examining possible day-after scenarios in the event Maduro is ousted, including the opposition’s plans for a transition. Internal documents obtained by The Washington Post show that U.S. officials are concerned about how the Venezuelan military would respond.
A telephone conversation between Maduro and Trump last month was cordial, according to three people who have been in contact with the Venezuelan government, matching Maduro’s public assessment. Trump indicated he would like to see Maduro step down, they said, but there were no ultimatums and the two pledged to speak again.
The call “was a signal that both sides are at least open to communication, but neither put any real cards on the table,” said one person who has met with Maduro since the call. His characterization of the call was confirmed by two other people in contact with Maduro and senior officials close to him.
Neither the White House nor the Venezuelan government responded to requests for comment.
Other intermediaries have stepped in to try to encourage talks between the two governments. Brazilian billionaire Joesley Batista, the owner of the global meatpacking giant JBS, met with Maduro in Caracas on Nov. 23, according to four people familiar with the meeting. One of them told The Post that Batista probed Maduro about the prospects for dialogue with the United States and what Venezuela might be willing to offer.
Batista, who has business interests in both the U.S. and Venezuela, has acted as middleman in negotiations between the Trump administration and the Brazilian government on tariffs. Bloomberg first reported on his meeting with Maduro last week.
As the United States has ramped up pressure, blowing up boats it alleges are smuggling drugs and flying warplanes near Venezuelan airspace, Maduro has continued to appear “in good spirits” in both public and private, according to the person who met with him recently.
His inner circle, which includes the vice president, interior minister, defense minister and National Assembly president, appears to be holding.
“For now, I don’t see any internal cracks,” said a second person in contact with Maduro officials. “Deep down, they’re nervous, but they think nothing will happen.”
“They want to see how far Trump will go,” he said.
But the past few months have taken a toll. Maduro is traveling with a larger security detail and recently canceled an interview with a Western news outlet after insisting it be conducted in a public space, fearing it could be used as a trap, according to the person who met with him recently.
“We have lived through 22 weeks of psychological terrorism, which has tested us,” he told a rally in Caracas last week. Loudspeakers blared his words set to a techno backing: “No war, yes peace!” He danced.
Such events, always unannounced, are now the only public appearances he makes. He is surrounded by supporters.
For Venezuela, war or a prolonged standoff both have the potential to further hobble an economy struggling under years of U.S.-led sanctions and the government’s own mismanagement.
The cancellation of flights by several airlines after Trump warned them away from Venezuelan airspace has added new economic uncertainty for the country and its officials, according to one of the people in contact with the government.
Despite Maduro’s declaration of an early Christmas, holiday sales in central Caracas have been abysmal, according to a jewelry merchant here. “Whatever money people have, they are saving it for food and just in case there’s war,” she said. She spoke on the condition of anonymity out of concern she could be arrested for providing a comment to a foreign news organization.
What happens next is unclear. Since the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group arrived last month, the military buildup has largely leveled off. And since The Post revealed that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth had ordered the commander of the first boat strike to leave no survivors, that mission, in which U.S. forces have killed at least 87 people, has come under increasing scrutiny.
Neither the Trump nor Biden administrations have recognized Maduro as Venezuela’s legitimate president. The handpicked successor to Hugo Chávez, founder of Venezuela’s socialist state, he has held power since 2013 with increasingly repressive rule. He claimed reelection last year despite independent ballot audits by The Post and others that showed opposition candidate Edmundo González had won more than two-thirds of the vote.
It’s unclear what kind of deal could entice Maduro to step down.
The individuals close to him say he might be open to leaving, but it would have to be on his own terms. Unless he feels that his overthrow is imminent, they say, he believes exile is a riskier alternative.
Maduro and his inner circle “don’t feel that the threat is existential if they stay here, whereas it might be if they leave,” said Phil Gunson, an International Crisis Group Venezuela analyst based in Caracas.
Outside Venezuela, Maduro would be dependent on a foreign government, and is certainly aware of past deals for Latin American leaders that ended badly, Gunson said.
The socialist Bolivian President Juan José Torres González fled a military coup in 1971 for Argentina; after a similar coup in Buenos Aires, he was kidnapped and killed there in 1976. The Nicaraguan dictator Anastasio Somoza Debayle, ousted by the Sandinistas in 1979, went into exile in Paraguay only to be assassinated in Asunción the following year.
Turkey, with its strong ties to Maduro’s government, would be one potential destination for exile. But it’s unclear if the idea was raised in the call between Trump and Maduro last month.
Internal U.S. government documents obtained by The Post include plans drafted by opposition leader María Corina Machado to create task forces to stabilize the country in the first 100 hours and 100 days after Maduro departs. Elections would be held within the first year.
Machado was named the recipient of the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize for what the Norwegian Nobel Committee said was “her tireless work promoting democratic rights for the people of Venezuela and for her struggle to achieve a just and peaceful transition from dictatorship to democracy.”
Machado’s team didn’t share their plans in their entirety with U.S. officials, citing security concerns, a U.S. official wrote in the documents, but they “demonstrated greater preparedness than previously understood.”
The documents also cite a detailed analysis of Venezuelan military officers conducted by Machado’s team to support their claims that only a “limited” purge of top Maduro officials would be necessary. They found only 20 percent of Venezuelan officers were “irredeemable”; the rest of the military, they said, was either against Maduro or nonpolitical.
“Machado and González would not allow cohabitation, meaning that current top regime officials would have no place in a new government,” the official wrote, but “the next government would not need to prosecute more than a few dozen Maduro regime officials.”
Other opposition figures are skeptical of the extent of Machado’s contacts with Venezuela’s military, a critical element of any day-after planning. “These contacts worried that if Maduro suddenly left power, a Machado-led government would flounder in the face of immense challenges,” the official wrote.
As Maduro has tightened his personal security, he’s deepened ties with allies Russia and Cuba, which further complicates talks.
Cuba, which relies on Venezuela for most of its oil needs, could act as a spoiler, warned Andrés Martínez-Fernández, a Latin America policy analyst with the Heritage Foundation, which is close to the Trump administration.
“Losing Maduro would be a devastating blow for Havana and the Cuban dictatorship,” Martínez-Fernández said. The additional Cuban intelligence officers and bodyguards who now surround Maduro, he said, will be an obstacle.
“Those Cuban agents are not going to be willing to allow Maduro to make a deal to surrender,” he said.
George and Natanson reported from Washington. Schmidt reported from Mexico City. Dias reported from Brasília.
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