Iran’s supreme leader is under mounting pressure over the war — as the regime’s grip on the Straight of Hormuz weakens, cash finally starts to get tight and top political leaders publicly urge the the Islamists in charge to find a way out of the conflict.
The latest phase of the conflict has seen more and more ships quietly slipping through Hormuz, with nearly 200 vessel sailing through the strait last week, according to data from the UK Maritime Trade Operations Center.
The flow represents a 400% spike in the last two weeks, with maritime analysts Kpler noting that the traffic finding safe passage — aided by US Navy escorts — effectively means Iran has lost partial control of the strait.
And while more ships and oil are getting out, Iran’s own oil exports have dropped to near zero, under the renewed American blockade on its ports and President Trump’s “economic D-Day” measures.
There has been little to no activity seen at Iran’s Kharg Island oil hub, according to recent satellite images, leaving Iran with few options to offset its already ailing economy hit by historically high inflation and unemployment.
There’s no economic relief in sight for the regime as the US continues to slap sanctions on the Islamic republic as part of its maximum pressure campaign, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent threatening more penalties to come.
Finally, latest week, the United Arab Emirates suspended all trade with Iran over renewed missile fire — taking away a key export hub that had helped soften the shocks of US sanctions.
The Islamic republic “depends heavily on the UAE, not because the UAE itself produces one-third of Iran’s imports, but because it serves as a major gateway for Iran to access third-country goods and commercial infrastructure,” Mohammad Farzanegan, a professor of Middle Eastern economics at Germany’s University of Marburg, told The Associated Press.
The reality facing Iran’s plummeting economy led the regime to threaten any other Gulf ally with retaliation if it decides to join America’s economic war.
“Any country that becomes a partner in creating economic restrictions against us will be regarded by us as an enemy,” Mohsen Rezaei, Iran’s new security chief, said in an interview with state broadcasters.
With its control over the strait and its economy coming under strain, Iran is also contending with a fracture in its leadership over the state of the war.
Hardliners like Rezaei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps maintain that they can endure any pressure while inflicting their own harm on the US and its allies.
Meanwhile, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has repeatedly warned that mounting economic pressure on Tehran is taking its toll, while cautioning against “humiliatingly” backing down “before the enemy.”
“The war must come to an end at some point,” Pezeshkian said in a speech Friday, per state media. “It is better that we demonstrate our strength and dignity today and tell the world that we have won and that we are ending the war.”
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf also underscored the national security risks the country faces if the theocratic regime continues to deal with a full-blown economic crisis.
“No matter how much military power we have, if our people are struggling and the country lacks financial circulation and economic growth, we will not achieve progress,” he said, per Iranian state media. “As someone who has experienced war, [I] understand the true value of peace.”
Supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who is believed to be severely injured, “probably gay,” and has not been seen publicly since the war began, finally resurfaced last week in a 15-second video.
The clip, which is not dated and gives no indication as to when it was filmed, shows Khamenei — who succeeded his father after he was killed by Israeli bombs in the first day of the war — surrounded by advisors.
His absence from the public eye — even President Pezeshkian has said it’s hard to communicate with him and their one meeting was cloaked in shadow — means his grip on the Iranian people is fading, opponents of the regime say.
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