Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at an Israel-Hamas cease-fire deal, the arrest of South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, and Russian attacks on Ukraine’s power grid.
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466 Days Later
After 15 months of brutal warfare in Gaza, top negotiators said on Wednesday that Israel and Hamas were preparing to agree to a cease-fire and hostage release deal.
Neither side has formally announced the agreement, and the office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the final details are still being sorted. But senior Hamas official Basem Naim confirmed to Foreign Policy that Israel and Hamas have agreed on a framework.
Israel’s cabinet must still ratify the proposal. “We will continue to act with all our might until every stage of the deal is realized and the last captive returns,” Israeli President Isaac Herzog said in an appeal for top ministers to approve the deal, likely alluding to far-right officials, such as National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, who have threatened to leave Netanyahu’s governing coalition if a cease-fire is signed. A vote is expected by Thursday.
If all goes according to plan, here is what to expect from the three-phase framework:
Phase 1: All sides will adhere to a six-week cease-fire, effective on Jan. 19. During this time, Hamas will gradually release 33 Israeli hostages in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, including those currently serving life sentences. Israeli forces will withdraw from population centers in Gaza and the Netzarim Corridor but will remain in the Philadelphi Corridor.
Palestinian families will be allowed to return to their homes in northern Gaza, and Israeli authorities will ensure that a surge of humanitarian aid can enter the region through the Rafah border crossing. Details for the second and third phases will be determined during this time to create what U.S. President Joe Biden called a “permanent end to the war” on Wednesday.
Phase 2: Hamas will release the remaining living hostages in exchange for more Palestinian prisoners. Hamas currently holds around 100 captives in Gaza, one-third of whom are believed to be dead. Israeli troops will also withdraw their remaining forces from the territory, and the temporary cease-fire will become permanent.
Phase 3: Hamas will return the bodies of those hostages killed while held captive by the militant group, and Israel will begin a three-to-five-year reconstruction plan for Gaza to be overseen by international observers.
Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani said on Wednesday that Qatar, the United States, and Egypt would work to ensure that all sides uphold their commitments. “Now let the journey of healing begin,” Husam Zomlot, the Palestinian ambassador to the United Kingdom, wrote on X, “starting with burying our dead, attending to our wounded, providing for basic human needs and rebuilding livelihoods. The world must not fail us again.”
Past efforts to secure a truce that could lead to a permanent peace deal were largely fruitless. But experts argue that a series of upheavals in the Middle East (including assassinations of senior Hamas leaders, Hezbollah’s surrender in Lebanon, and the fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad) as well as threats from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump pushed the latest round of negotiations over the finish line.
This will be the first pause in fighting since both sides agreed to a weeklong truce in November 2023, just one month after Hamas launched a major attack on Israel that killed around 1,200 people and sparked the conflict.
Since then, more than 46,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza, and around 90 percent of the population has been displaced, igniting a devastating humanitarian crisis. Islamophobic and antisemitic attacks around the world have escalated, and conflict has spilled over to the West Bank, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Iran.
Whether both sides will honor the deal remains to be seen. “If Hamas starts to regain power in parts of Gaza, Israeli leaders may strike to remove it, past promises be damned,” Daniel Byman argues in Foreign Policy. “Hamas, for its part, may conduct attacks on remaining Israeli forces in Gaza or on any international or Palestinian group that tries to displace it.”
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What We’re Following
Yoon arrested. South Korean authorities arrested President Yoon Suk-yeol in Seoul early Wednesday to face several criminal charges, including inciting an insurrection, related to his decision to declare martial law last month. Yoon was impeached on Dec. 14, 2024. This is the first time that a sitting South Korean president has been arrested in the country’s history.
The warrant allows investigators to hold Yoon for up to 48 hours, after which he must be formally detained or released. Around 3,000 police officers were involved in Wednesday’s arrest. Their first attempt to do so on Jan. 3 failed when a “human wall” including the presidential guard, military troops, and hundreds of Yoon’s supporters blocked anti-corruption agents from reaching the presidential compound.
Yoon initially refused to go in for questioning or cooperate with the arrest warrant and instead holed up in his home, even when South Korea’s Constitutional Court began his impeachment trial on Tuesday. Yoon’s arrest ends a weekslong power struggle that sparked mass protests and the firings of several high-ranking officials.
Russia targets Ukraine’s power grid. Russia launched a massive barrage of missiles and drones against Ukraine on Wednesday that forced the country to shut down the power grid in several key areas. Around 43 ballistic and cruise missiles and 74 attack drones targeted “critically important facilities of gas and energy infrastructure that ensure the functioning of Ukraine’s military industrial complex,” according to the Russian Defense Ministry.
The large-scale assault came one day after Ukrainian forces launched what it said was its largest air attack on Russia since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022. The Ukrainian Air Force said on Wednesday that its defense systems had intercepted most of the Russian projectiles. Russia has repeatedly targeted Ukraine’s power grid as temperatures stay below freezing.
Advisors to Trump conceded on Wednesday that a Russia-Ukraine peace deal is likely still months away, if not longer. This is a harsh reality check for the incoming president, who had vowed to end the nearly three-year war before taking office on Jan. 20.
Rubio outlines U.S. policy. Confirmation hearings for Trump’s cabinet appointees continued on Wednesday with Sen. Marco Rubio, who is nominated for secretary of state. During his hearing, Rubio touted the importance of an America First strategy, chastised the International Criminal Court, and criticized U.S. counterterrorism efforts in Africa.
Rubio said sanctions (or the removal of them) would play a key role in ending the Russia-Ukraine war, and he vowed to work toward normalizing relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel.
“I believe you have the skills and are well qualified to serve as secretary of state,” Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen said during the hearing. Rubio received a much friendlier reception than Defense Secretary nominee Pete Hegseth, who faced scrutiny on Tuesday for his lack of experience and limited knowledge about Washington’s close partners.
Odds and Ends
Swedish artist Mikael Genberg will be the first person to colonize the moon—sort of. A miniature aluminum model home, complete with red sidings and a wee chimney, hitched a ride with SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket on Wednesday to land on Earth’s closest neighbor. “What’s the purpose? It’s art,” Genberg said, adding that such a mission has been his dream for the last 25 years.
If all goes as planned, a rover will drop the house off on the moon’s surface in four months, where it will remain for potentially thousands of years. That’s what we like to call shooting for the moon.
The post Israel and Hamas Finally Reach Cease-Fire Deal appeared first on Foreign Policy.
