PARIS — French Prime Minister François Bayrou appeared to buy his fledgling minority government at least a few more months by giving all sides time to negotiate over raising the country’s retirement age from 62 to 64 for most workers. The plan, which he floated during his first major policy speech on Tuesday, would see trade and employer unions given three months to discuss the controversial changes, in what Bayrou called a “conclave,” within certain strict financial guidelines.
Raising the pension age has long been one of the most contentious issues in French politics. The country enjoys a generous welfare state, but as public debt piles up, policymakers are increasingly desperate to make savings. The challenge for Bayrou is to navigate the deeply fractured parliament that emerged after last summer’s snap elections and avoid the fate of his predecessor, Michel Barnier, whose government didn’t even last 100 days. Bayrou is an ally of beleaguered President Emmanuel Macron and already looks set to face a series of no-confidence votes.
Bayrou said that if talks on the retirement issue break down the pensions age wouldn’t change, leaving a future government to confront potentially urgent economic reforms. If they succeed, changes would be included in the next social security budget bill or if need be, in new legislation.
“It is my conviction that we can seek a new reform path, without totems or taboos, even on the age of retirement,” Bayrou said in his 90-minute speech. The method he promised would be “new and a bit radical.”
This opening gambit was aimed at getting the Socialists to refrain from bringing down the government in a series of upcoming no-confidence votes. It appears to have worked.
Socialist Party leaders grudgingly said they would give talks a chance.
“I agreed to negotiate, but that means mutual concessions,” party chief Olivier Faure told French broadcaster TF1. “The prime minister has opened a door. That at least is a win.”
However, Faure said his lawmakers may still vote to censure Bayrou if they are not given swift assurances that the 2023 pension law will be scrapped even if negotiations fail.
The hard-left France Unbowed party brought a no-confidence motion against Bayrou, and a vote on it will likely take place on Thursday. The measure is not expected to pass, as the far-right National Rally has already said it will not vote to topple Bayrou before giving him a chance to govern.
Another no-confidence vote
The real test is further down the line when the 2025 budget bill returns to parliament, which could lead to another vote of no-confidence in late January. It’s likely then that the far right will vote against the government, so Bayrou needs to pick off enough left-wing MPs to survive without alienating the conservatives and Macron’s troops who support the pensions reform.
On Sunday, the conservative parliamentary leader Laurent Wauquiez fired a warning shot, threatening to withdraw support for Bayrou’s government, which includes conservatives, if he gave too many concessions to the left.
In his speech, Bayrou said the retirement reform was necessary given France’s eye-watering budget deficit, which came in at 6.2 percent of gross domestic product for 2024. The veteran centrist politician accused lawmakers and leaders from across the political spectrum of dancing “a fatal tango” with debt that “brought us to the edge of the precipice.”
Both the center left and conservatives appear appeased for the moment.
But much as Barnier was finally ousted after seeking to build bridges with the far right, leaving France without a proper budget for 2025, Bayrou may also be knocked out if the mood shifts among the moderate left as he attempts to bring down the budget deficit.
His government would then be France’s fourth one to fall in the last year, which could carry catastrophic ramifications for French finances and the stability of the eurozone.
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