Unpredictable turnout, a large number of undecided voters and a relatively small number of independent polls have created some uncertainty in Tuesday’s Democratic primary for Senate in Minnesota.
While several recent independent polls have had Representative Angie Craig, a moderate, ahead or tied, some partisan surveys released by the campaign of Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, a progressive, have had Ms. Flanagan ahead. In the state’s Republican primary for governor, Mike Lindell, the chief executive of MyPillow and a prominent figure in the election denial movement, has led in six of the seven polls of the race.
Only three independent polls have been conducted since the start of the year in the Democratic Senate primary. All three were conducted by SurveyUSA, and they each point to a tight contest. The most recent of those surveys, fielded a week before Election Day and sponsored by KSTP in Minneapolis, showed Ms. Craig ahead by two percentage points.
The other polls in the race have come from campaigns or partisan groups affiliated with the candidates. Those types of internal polls tend to release results when they are favorable to the candidate or when they advance a specific narrative.
To that end, surveys released by Ms. Flanagan’s campaign have favored her. The latest, from Public Policy Polling and sponsored by the Democratic Lieutenant Governors Association, showed her leading by 14 percentage points.
The most recent poll released by Ms. Craig’s campaign, which was fielded by Global Strategy Group in late May, showed her up by one percentage point — a result more consistent with the independent surveys.
Polls of all types showed a large bloc of undecided voters. The late-July poll for the lieutenant governor’s association found more than 20 percent still undecided, while the most recent SurveyUSA one showed 15 percent in that category.
In the Republican primary for governor, Mr. Lindell has consistently led in polls, including three of the four that were fielded independently.
The exception came in late June, when Lisa Demuth, the speaker of the Minnesota House of Representatives, led in a poll from the Minnesota Private Business Council. That survey was also the only one to show Kendall Qualls, a businessman who was endorsed by the state Republican Party, finishing in the top two.
Mr. Lindell has led in both polls fielded following an endorsement from President Trump in mid-July, but the newest poll, an independent one from SurveyUSA fielded in late July and sponsored by KSTP in Minneapolis, had his lead over Ms. Demuth down to six percentage points. That was a slight decrease from the lead Mr. Lindell had in a SurveyUSA poll from mid-July that was sponsored by three TV stations in Minnesota. With Mr. Lindell’s narrow leads in these polls, the more than 15 percent of voters who were still undecided in each could easily swing the result toward any candidate.
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