Until recently, the field of candidates in the Democratic primary for governor of Wisconsin remained in flux. In the end, Francesca Hong, a state representative and democratic socialist, emerged as a front-runner, while David Crowley, the Milwaukee County executive, has attempted to consolidate the support of Wisconsin moderates in the wake of recent progressive victories in New York, Michigan and Colorado.
As that familiar matchup of progressive versus moderate plays out, there are a few key areas in Wisconsin that we will be watching after results start arriving shortly after polls close.
Milwaukee County
Mr. Crowley’s path to victory will almost certainly need to run through Milwaukee. The county, which contains the city of the same name, is the state’s most populous and will account for about 20 percent of the total vote. Mr. Crowley currently serves as the Milwaukee County executive, which could give him a local advantage.
Milwaukee is the state’s most racially diverse county and detailed results here, particularly in the city of Milwaukee, could provide clues to candidate support and enthusiasm among Black and Hispanic voters. Mr. Crowley, who is Black, has gained endorsements from many Black leaders and the Congressional Black Caucus PAC.
Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington Counties
This group of Milwaukee suburbs, also known as the “WOW” counties, has been considered a bellwether of the state’s political shifts, and is expected to account for about 9 percent of the total vote. President Trump carried these historically Republican strongholds all three times he was on the ballot, but his margins have slipped since 2016.
The shift to the left escalated earlier this year when Ozaukee flipped to blue in the state’s supreme court election, and how the area votes in this primary could be an indicator of how the Democratic nominee will fare among college-educated, high-income voters — a key group of swing voters in the general election.
Dane County
Ms. Hong’s base of support is centered in Dane County, which contains the state capital, Madison, and accounts for nearly as much of the vote in Democratic primaries as Milwaukee. Ms. Hong, whose state assembly seat includes several areas in and around Madison, is expected to do well here.
Her lead in polls is particularly strong among young voters, many of whom are concentrated in the areas surrounding the University of Wisconsin-Madison campus. Progressive candidates have historically fared well in Dane; it was Bernie Sanders’s best county in 2016 and 2020.
Columbia, Green and Iowa Counties
The three counties surrounding Dane have very different political profiles. Iowa County is the most consistently Democratic of the three and has been an area where progressives have found support in the past. Columbia, by contrast, flipped to Mr. Trump in 2016 after Barack Obama won it by double digits in 2008 and 2012. Green has similarly trended toward Mr. Trump, with Vice President Kamala Harris winning the county by 0.3 percentage points in 2024 after Mr. Obama won it by 17 percentage points in 2012.
Though these counties will not account for a substantial share of the primary vote, they could provide interesting insights into the winning candidate’s strongest coalitions — and where they might have work to do before November.
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