Republicans have a holiday message for cash-strapped Americans: chill out.
“Relax,” Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) advised on Thursday, assuring voters they will feel better once provisions from the Big Beautiful Bill kick in next year. “We are exactly on the trajectory of where we’ve always planned to be. Steady at the wheel, everybody. It’s gonna be fine.”
There’s nothing as soothing as being told to calm down when you’re struggling to pay for groceries, let alone Christmas presents.
Johnson might be taking notes from the White House. Vice President JD Vance has been asking for “a little bit of patience.” He keeps insisting the country is on the “front end” of a “boom.” President Donald Trump saidduring a Tuesday Cabinet meeting: “The word ‘affordability’ is a Democrat scam.”
Consumers don’t see it that way. Gallup said Thursday that its Economic Confidence Index has slipped seven points to -30, its lowest reading in 17 months. Consumers estimate they will spend an average of $778 on holiday presents, down from $1,012 at this point last year. Growing numbers are using buy now, pay later services, another indication people feel strapped for cash. Data released Wednesday by ADP showed an unexpected drop in private payrolls by 32,000 last month.
Republicans weren’t so happy when President Joe Biden preached patience in 2022. It takes time for an economy to change, so the Trump administration could get away with blaming Biden for high egg prices during its first 100 days. But it’s been almost a year. Egg prices have actually come down, but overall inflation remains persistently above the Federal Reserve’s target. The CEO of Omaha Steaks said on Fox Business last month that ground beef could cost $10 a pound next year.
“Relax” rings hollow when the White House keeps pushing policies that drive up prices like tariffs and deportations, as well as raising expectations the Fed will cut interest rates next year once Trump’s pick to replace Jerome Powell becomes chair, which would fuel more inflation. The White House says Trump’s Wednesday move to scrap Biden-era fuel standards will bring downauto prices, which would be great, but that won’t happen anytime soon. For now, with higherprices, new car sales are way down.
Trump and Vance promised their trade and immigration policies would usher in a new golden age, leading to a renaissance of new factories that would employ native-born workers. “It’s almost like the economics profession doesn’t fully understand tariffs,” Vance tweeted in July. Yet manufacturing contractedfor the ninth straight month in November, according to data released this week, as factories face slumping orders and higher prices for inputs because of tariffs. Meanwhile, many executives tell us they plan to pass higher production costs along to consumers over the next year.
Farmers are especially strained under this administration’s chaotic economic policies. Soybean growers face a third year of losses. Prices finally went up after the president struck a deal with China, but uncertainty remains about whether Beijing will buy the 12 million metric tons it promised. Even if they do, plenty of damage has been already done because customers have started buying from alternative sources.
The Trump administration’s promise of a multi-billion-dollar bailout for struggling farmers has yet to materialize. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins says “a bridge payment” will be announced next week. But if tariffs are helpful, why do farmers need a bailout? Nothing screams prosperity like floating $2,000 stimulus payments for “working families,” funded by tariff revenues — and then saying those checks wouldn’t arrive by Christmas, if ever. If a boom is imminent, why do families need stimulus checks?
In an honest moment this spring, Trump acknowledged his policies might compel Americans to become less materialistic. This will be the first Christmas since the president said children may need to make do with two dolls instead of 30. Or maybe Santa Claus will use his sleigh to smuggle in duty-free gifts for under America’s trees.
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