Iran considered attacking a seaport in Ukraine in response to a Ukrainian strike on an Iranian ship, but a flurry of diplomacy has calmed the situation for now, according to Iranian and Western officials.
Ukraine, which has accused Iran and Russia of supporting each other’s military operations, struck an Iranian commercial cargo ship in the Caspian Sea on Saturday, killing a civilian sailor. Iranian officials vowed to retaliate.
Some people briefed on the intelligence said that they expected Iran to fire a ballistic missile with a small warhead at Ukraine, to make a symbolic point but cause relatively little damage. Other officials said the target was probably one of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports.
Any missile fired from Iran into Ukraine would be a dramatic escalation and risk triggering a wider war, given the tensions between the two countries over Iran’s alliance with Russia.
Iranian officials said they hoped the conflict would end with their retaliatory strike, but Western officials warned that it was difficult to predict how Ukraine would respond.
The officials interviewed for this article spoke on the condition of anonymity — the Western officials so they could discuss sensitive intelligence matters, and the Iranians so they could discuss military planning.
On Sunday, Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister, called Ukraine’s attack a violation of the U.N. charter aimed at dragging Europe into Iran’s war with the United States. In a social media post, he said the incident “CANNOT GO UNANSWERED.”
A U.S. blockade of Iranian Persian Gulf ports has made Iran’s trade with Russia across the Caspian Sea more important. The Caspian Sea has emerged as a critical supply route for both overt and covert trade.
But on Tuesday, after Ukrainian diplomats sought to ease tensions, Mr. Araghchi spoke by phone with his Ukrainian counterpart, Andrii Sybiha.
After the call, Mr. Araghchi said in a post that Mr. Sybiha had described the attack on the cargo ship as unintentional. “Iran does not seek escalation either, but made clear any attack on our citizens or interests is unacceptable,” Mr. Araghchi wrote. “There must be restitution for losses.”
The Iranian foreign minister said on his official webpage that he also spoke to Kaja Kallas, the top European Union diplomat, about “ways to help decrease tensions in the region.”
Mehdi Rahmati, an analyst who is close to Iran’s government and is based in the country, said that while some Iranian political figures had called for striking back at Ukraine, others had advised restraint.
“Ukraine is not a small, insignificant country. It has warfare experience, and logistical support from America and Europe. We won’t gain anything by creating a new front in the war,” Mr. Rahmati said in a phone interview from Tehran.
Still, it was not clear how long the tensions would remain in check.
President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine was in Washington on Tuesday for a meeting with President Trump and a memorial service for Senator Lindsey Graham, the South Carolina Republican who supported Ukraine in its war against Russia.
Mr. Zelensky had promised to bring intelligence about Russia’s support for Iran in its war with the United States. Ukrainian officials have said that Russia has given Iran satellite imagery of U.S. bases in the Middle East.
Ukrainian officials have long complained about Russia’s use of Iranian drones and drone parts in its attacks on Ukraine.
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