Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe of Missouri won the Republican primary for governor on Tuesday, according to The Associated Press, giving him the upper hand in a contest in November to succeed Mike Parson.
Mr. Kehoe, 62, defeated two rivals who portrayed themselves as more conservative alternatives to the current state leadership. They included Missouri’s secretary of state, Jay Ashcroft, the son of the former Missouri governor and U.S. senator and attorney general John Ashcroft. Jay Ashcroft finished third behind State Senator Bill Eigel, who pledged to act aggressively to expel all undocumented immigrants from Missouri.
Mr. Parson, 68, who has served as governor since June 2018 and remains broadly popular, is barred by term limits from running this year. He endorsed Mr. Kehoe last month.
In the Democratic primary, State Representative Crystal Quade, the House minority leader, defeated Mike Hamra, a businessman.
Democrats had long been competitive in national and statewide races in Missouri. The state had a Democratic governor, Jay Nixon, as recently as 2017 and a Democrat in the U.S. Senate, Claire McCaskill, as recently as 2019. Former President Barack Obama narrowly lost Missouri in 2008.
But the election of former President Donald J. Trump in 2016 made clear that Missouri had turned into a solidly red state. That means that the winner of the Republican primary is widely expected to become the next governor, said Daniel Butler, a political scientist at Washington University in St. Louis.
One factor that could upend conventional wisdom in the race is a ballot measure that voters are likely to consider in November, which could enshrine a right to abortion in Missouri’s Constitution. Similar initiatives have helped boost Democrats in other red-leaning states since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022.
Professor Butler said the abortion measure made the contest for the governor’s race in November less predictable than it would have been, and the Democrats in the race had expressed hope that the measure could help improve their chances in the general election. Nearly all abortions are illegal in Missouri.
All three Republican candidates for governor had said they opposed abortion, although Mr. Kehoe said last year that he would consider amending the state’s law to include exceptions for rape and incest. During a recent debate that Mr. Kehoe did not attend, Mr. Ashcroft and Mr. Eigel signaled support for a stricter ban than what Mr. Kehoe favored.
The two Democrats running for governor supported legalizing the right to abortion.
Mr. Kehoe, a former car salesman, presented himself as a self-made businessman raised by a single mother who was attuned to the needs and aspirations of working class voters.
Mr. Ashcroft, 51, entered the race with significant name recognition as the son of one of the best-known political figures in the state. He campaigned on a promise to cut taxes and government spending, and prevent Chinese firms from buying farmland in Missouri.
Mr. Eigel, 46, gained attention during the final stretch of the race by running ads presenting him as the toughest candidate on immigration. One featured a Spanish-speaking interpreter who appeared to panic halfway through the ad as Mr. Eigel sternly declared “we’re throwing them in jail, and sending them back where they came from.”
In late July, Mr. Trump endorsed all three, preventing any one of the candidates from receiving a singular boost from his support.
“Choose any one of them,” Mr. Trump wrote. “You can’t go wrong!”
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