A blue wave is building offshore, and Republicans are starting to hear the rumble and fear being washed away.
They have good reasons. President Trump’s approval rating has slipped to a paltry 36%, which is the political equivalent of your doctor saying, “Technically, you’re still alive.”
The notion that Democrats will retake the House has gone from wishful thinking to conventional wisdom — and the possibility they could claw back the Senate is suddenly no longer a joke.
Retirements are accelerating. And if November’s elections in New Jersey and Virginia didn’t serve as a flashing “warning” signal, this week’s special election in Tennessee might do the trick.
True, Republican Matt Van Epps won by 9 points. But just last year, Trump carried that same district by around 22. That’s a swing of 13 points. I’m no math major, but I’m pretty sure if Republicans spot every Democrat in America a baker’s dozen points, the results will be what political scientists call a “whoa, mama” situation.
Indeed, data journalist G. Elliott Morris predicts: “A swing of 13 points would put Dems over 250 seats in the U.S. House” and even a six-point swing “gives them the House, and maybe the Senate.”
Republicans, when they’re being honest, admit this.
Before the election, one House Republican told Politico: “If our victory margin is single digits, the conference may come unhinged.” Well, Trump’s GOP was never exactly hinged to begin with, but you don’t have to be a worrywart to know that it’s time to hit the “panic” button.
The Democratic nominee in Tennessee, Aftyn Behn — dubbed the “AOC of Tennessee” by Republicans — was never an ideal candidate for this district. She leaned left and publicly said she hates country music — an interesting take in a district that includes parts of Nashville.
And yet, for a lot of voters, none of that was disqualifying. Whether the problem is Trump fatigue, the affordability crisis or some combination thereof, the real story here isn’t just that things are starting to look scary for Republicans. It’s that bad news, in politics, functions like compound interest: A small problem today balloons into a huge crisis tomorrow.
“This is the time when both parties recruit candidates, shore up vulnerable incumbents, and set expectations,” writes former “Meet the Press” host Chuck Todd. “And this downturn for the GOP couldn’t be coming at a better time for Democrats or a worse time for Republicans.”
After getting off to a fast start to his second term, Trump’s momentum hit the wall this fall. The results were ugly.
But this state of free fall could last the rest of Trump’s term. Just ask any other lame duck.
And here’s why it’s an even bigger deal: Momentum and perception have always mattered. But in the case of Trump, these ethereal qualities are pulling double duty, not just shaping the 2026 midterm landscape but also bleeding into calculations about whether Trump might somehow find a way to stay in power after 2028.
It’s not paranoia to suspect that political, financial, media institutions — and yes, even judges — are hedging their bets, consciously or not, based on whether they think crossing Trump is more dangerous than running afoul of the next administration (and possibly, the law).
These people can smell risk the way sharks smell blood.
Take JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, for example. He publicly declined to contribute to Trump’s ballroom fund, a move he likely wouldn’t have made if Trump looked stronger. Rather than wooing Trump, he would seem to be striving to stay on the right side of the powerful people who could make life difficult for JPM — whoever will be running Congress in 13 months and the executive branch after Trump.
This is where psychology comes into play. Losing elections and tanking poll numbers aren’t just bad in and of themselves; they also degrade Trump’s ability to project inevitability, which becomes its own sort of self-fulfilling prophecy.
If people perceive that Trump is gaining power, they think of him like a fixed object. Conversely, if they think he’s fading, they suddenly rediscover concepts like “independence” and “legal consequences.”
This is to say, we’re at an inflection point. And every stumble — every retirement, every poll dip, every special election — accelerates the cycle.
Electorally, this discourages top-tier Republicans from running, which hurts the party’s chances of keeping the House. Institutionally, it undermines Trump’s greatest political resource: the illusion of inevitability.
Once that cracks, the whole operation wobbles like a chandelier in a wind storm.
Republicans see it. Democrats smell it. Donors can feel a shift in the air. Anyone with a title, a reputation and a fear of subpoenas has their finger in the wind.
The storm clouds are already gathering.
Matt K. Lewis is the author of “Filthy Rich Politicians” and “Too Dumb to Fail.”
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