Global oil markets, shipping and air travel are again facing disruptions as the United States and Iran ramp up hostilities in the Middle East.
American warplanes have struck hundreds of targets in Iran over the past week, according to U.S. Central Command, while Iran has resumed attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz and on U.S. allies in the region. President Trump this week reinstated a naval blockade on Iranian ports, which analysts say could cause more damage to markets than the first such blockade in April.
As fears grow of a return to full-scale war, here’s what to know about the renewed disruptions in three key sectors:
Oil
The price of Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, rose as high as $87 a barrel on Tuesday after Mr. Trump said the blockade on Iranian ports would resume.
He also proposed, and later scrapped, a plan for the United States to charge a 20 percent fee on cargo shipped through the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for military protection. That reversal only added to the uncertainty, including concerns among shipping experts that other nations would try to monetize waterways, undermining the freedom of navigation that has underpinned global trade by sea for decades.
Roughly a fifth of global oil shipments passed through the Strait of Hormuz before the war. To avoid depending on the strait, oil-exporting countries like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait have sought to expand pipelines or develop new ones, approaches that are costly and would take time.
U.S. oil reserves are now at their lowest levels since 1983, and commercial inventories have also been depleted. China, the world’s largest oil importer, has slashed imports of crude in recent months, which helped keep oil prices from soaring even higher. But if it eventually decides to start buying more oil, it could put upward pressure on prices.
Shipping
The Strait of Hormuz isn’t just a conduit for oil: Fertilizer, bulk goods and plenty of other cargo typically transit the waterway. Before he walked it back, Mr. Trump’s plan to charge fees in the strait would have doubled shipping costs, analysts said.
Logistics companies have reported higher freight rates than a year ago, while shipping companies have taken on additional costs to transport goods such as furniture, electronics and food to Persian Gulf countries by rail and truck, instead of through the strait. With the disruptions set to continue, those higher costs could be passed on to consumers, according to experts and industry officials.
The International Monetary Fund said last week that global inflation would rise to 4.7 percent in 2026, up from 4.1 percent last year, because of higher prices for energy, metals, fertilizer and food. Those calculations were made while the United States and Iran were observing a cease-fire, when oil prices had returned to near their prewar levels.
Flights
Airlines have operated fewer flights and raised fares after months of war caused jet fuel prices to nearly double. With airstrikes flying across the Middle East again, the skies over the region, once a major hub for international travel, are threatened anew.
On Tuesday, the European Union’s Aviation Safety Agency issued a bulletin telling airlines not to operate within the airspace of Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates — countries in the Persian Gulf that host U.S. military installations and have been attacked by Iran. Before hostilities resumed this week, the European authorities had allowed flight restrictions it instituted in the region earlier in the war to expire.
European airlines only operated a few dozen flights to the four affected countries in July, according to Cirium, an aviation data provider. But the new bulletin also applies to non-European airlines that operate thousands of flights between Europe and major connecting airports in the Gulf states.
Jenny Gross and Niraj Chokshi contributed reporting.
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