CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten said Thursday the Democratic Party is living through its own version of the Tea Party revolt, and a cluster of late-summer primaries have caught his eye to gauge how far it spreads.
Enten, whose midterm data breakdowns have become a CNN staple, argued that more House Democratic incumbents have already lost primaries in 2026 than Republicans had at the same stage of their 2010 wave.
“We have seen something like this before. You have to go back 16 years. Remember, it was that Republican Tea Party wave of 2010. I would argue the Democratic version of it is a new Tea Party, but it’s on steroids,” he told viewers, noting Democrats dislike their own party more now than Republicans did in July 2010.
“Just 47% of Democrats approve of their own party in Congress. As I said, it’s a new Tea Party,” he emphasized.
Five sitting House Democrats have gone down so far: the Zohran Mamdani-backed challengers who ousted New York Reps. Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat, the democratic socialist who unseated Colorado’s Diana DeGette, and two Texas members caught in redistricting-forced matchups.
Now, Enten is looking past those marquee upsets to seats that have drawn less national attention. He flagged Missouri’s 1st District, Michigan’s 13th and Connecticut’s 1st as places where a Democratic incumbent could fall next.
In Missouri, former Rep. Cori Bush is trying to win back the St. Louis seat she lost to Wesley Bell in 2024, with backing from Justice Democrats and Sen. Bernie Sanders.
“On August 4th, St. Louis will do the same,” Bush posted after the Colorado result. In Michigan, Rep. Shri Thanedar faces a Justice Democrats-backed challenge from state Rep. Donavan McKinney. Connecticut’s contest is different in character, with 77-year-old Rep. John Larson pressed by former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin in a generational fight.
Prediction markets, Enten noted, now favor a sixth Democratic incumbent losing before the primary calendar closes.
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