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Emmy Nomination Predictions: Which Newcomers Break Through?

July 6, 2026
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Post-Peak TV? Key Emmy Submissions Drop for 3rd Year in a Row

“Hacks” will hope for some lovely parting gifts from the Television Academy after completing its final season. “The Pitt” will look for the momentum of its 2025 Emmy win to translate into more nominations for Season 2. “Pluribus” and “Margo’s Got Money Troubles” will hope that they can emerge as strong challengers on the heels of their debut seasons.

Those are some of the stakes as we head toward the announcement of nominations for the 78th Primetime Emmy Awards on Wednesday, July 8. Some of last year’s big winners – “The Studio,” “Adolescence,” “Severance” – aren’t eligible this year, while a crop of new shows that includes “Pluribus,” “Margo,” “Widow’s Bay,” “A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms” and “Task” will hope to fill the vacuum.  

But past nominees that weren’t in the running last year are also back, with “Euphoria,” “Stranger Things,” “The Comeback,” “Jury Duty” and “Beef” in contention after sitting out the last few races.

At this point, we can say for sure that there won’t be as many nominees as there have been in other recent years; as the number of Emmy submissions dropped because of the pandemic, the Hollywood strikes and production slowdowns, the size of many categories also shrunk.

That’s because the number of nominees in almost every category is determined by the number of eligible entries in that category. A category with 20 to 80 entries has five nominees; 81 to 160 has six; 161 to 240 has seven; and more than 240 has eight, though no category had that many submissions this year. In these predictions, we’ve indicated how big each category will be based on the number of entries.

(The exceptions are Outstanding Comedy Series and Outstanding Drama Series, which are set at eight nominees. In some instances, ties can change the number of nominees in a category.)

This year, for the second year in a row, all six lead actor and actress categories will have the minimum number of nominees, five, while four directing categories, including drama and limited series, will lose a nominee. Only one category, covering short-form drama, comedy and variety programming, will gain a slot.

Based on our best guesses in 19 top categories, “Hacks” and “Shrinking” will score the most program and acting nominations in comedy, with “The Pitt” and “Pluribus” leading in drama categories and “Beef” and “Love Story: John F. Kennedy and Carolyn Bessette” heading up the limited-series field. Of course, there are about 100 other Emmy categories that aren’t covered here, so things can change dramatically once you move into the directing, writing and below-the-line categories.

But here’s what we think will be revealed at 8:30 a.m. PT on Wednesday, when Liza Colón-Zayas and Jeff Hiller will announce the nominations.

“Hacks” (HBO Max)

Comedy Categories

Outstanding Comedy Series Number of nominees: 8

Last year’s winner in this category, “The Studio,” has yet to release a second season, but six of the eight 2025 nominees are back: “Abbott Elementary,” “The Bear,” “Hacks,” “Nobody Wants This,” “Only Murders in the Building” and “Shrinking.” They all have a good shot at scoring repeat nominations, with “Nobody Wants This” and 2023 winner “The Bear” perhaps being the most vulnerable. Their stiffest competition comes from an unusually robust group of first-year comedies, including “Margo’s Got Money Troubles,” “Widow’s Bay,” “Rooster,” “I Love LA,” “The Lowdown” and “The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins.”

“Margo’s” and the late-surging “Widow’s Bay” seem to be the likeliest newcomers, though the latter show may be hurt by the fact that the last three of its 10 episodes aired in June and aren’t eligible. If they both get in, it’ll make the math difficult for two returning shows that have been in the running before, “The Comeback” and 2023 nominee “Jury Duty.”

Predicted nominees: “Abbott Elementary,” “The Bear,” “Hacks,” “Margo’s Got Money Troubles,” “Nobody Wants This,” “Only Murders in the Building,” “Shrinking,” “Widow’s Bay”

Watch out for: “The Comeback,” “Jury Duty Presents Company Retreat,” “Nobody Wants This,” “Rooster”

Matthew Rhys as Mayor Tom Loftis in the
Matthew Rhys as Mayor Tom Loftis in the “Widow’s Bay” Season 1 finale, “We Hope You Enjoyed Your Time!” (Apple TV)

Lead Actor in a Comedy Series Number of nominees: 5

Four of last year’s nominees – Adam Brody for “Nobody Wants This,” Jason Segel for “Shrinking,” Martin Short for “Only Murders in the Building” and Jeremy Allen White for “The Bear” – are back in contention this year, with White looking for his fourth consecutive nomination and Short for his fifth. But they’ll have to fend off newcomers that include Matthew Rhys for “Widow’s Bay,” Steve Carell for “Rooster,” Ethan Hawke for “The Lowdown,” Nicolas Cage for “Spider-Noir” and Glen Powell for “Chad Powers.”

It may be crazy to think that two-time winner White will miss a nomination, but the combination of a strong freshman class and cooling enthusiasm for “The Bear” (which went from 23 nominations and 11 wins in 2024 to 13 noms and 0 wins last year) might just put him in jeopardy.

Predicted nominees: Adam Brody, “Nobody Wants This”; Steve Carell, “Rooster”; Matthew Rhys, “Widow’s Bay”; Jason Segel, “Shrinking”; Martin Short, “Only Murders in the Building”

Watch out for: Ethan Hawke, “The Lowdown”; Steve Martin, “Only Murders in the Building”; Jeremy Allen White, “The Bear”

Lead Actress in a Comedy Series Number of nominees: 5

Jean Smart has ruled this category since “Hacks” went on the air, and she’s not going anywhere. Neither is Quinta Brunson. Voters didn’t fully embrace “The Comeback” in its first two seasons in 2006 and 2015, but they nominated Lisa Kudrow both times to go with her 13 other nominations. Kristen Bell was nominated for the first season of “Nobody Wants This,” and Ayo Edebiri for every season of “The Bear.”

Those five would fill up the entire category, but it feels as if somebody needs to fall out to make room for Elle Fanning’s performance as the title character in “Margo’s Got Money Troubles.” (And what about Rachel Sennott for “I Love LA”?) Maybe that’s a problem for Edebiri or Bell.

Predicted nominees: Kristen Bell, “Nobody Wants This”; Quinta Brunson, “Abbott Elementary”; Elle Fanning, “Margo’s Got Money Troubles”; Lisa Kudrow, “The Comeback”; Jean Smart, “Hacks”

Watch out for: Ayo Edebiri, “The Bear”; Kate Hudson, “Running Point”; Rachel Sennott, “I Love LA”

Margos-Got-Money-Troubles
Nick Offerman, Elle Fanning and Michelle Pfeiffer in “Margo’s Got Money Troubles” (Apple TV)

Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series Number of nominees: 7

While the lead acting categories are restricted to five nominees because they had fewer than 80 qualifying performances, the supporting categories are big enough to produce seven nominees. Which is good, because you could fill five of these slots with returning nominees from last year: Colman Domingo for “The Four Seasons,” Harrison Ford and Michael Urie for “Shrinking,” Ebon Moss-Bachrach for “The Bear” and Bowen Yang for “Saturday Night Live.” (Ford and Urie are the surest things.)

The defending champ in the category, Jeff Hiller, is on the ballot, too – not for the show for which he won last year, “Somebody Somewhere,” but for a smaller role in “Widow’s Bay,” which is more likely to score a nomination for Stephen Root than for Hiller (as long as Root isn’t hurt by the fact that his performance peaks in episodes that aired after May 31).

One inescapable newcomer in the category is Nick Offerman, a scene-stealer in “Margo’s Got Money Troubles.” Other new contenders are Daniel Radcliffe (“The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins”), Ben Kingsley (“Wonder Man”) and Phil Dunster (“Rooster”). But don’t underestimate Paul W. Downs from “Hacks” and Tyler James Williams from “Abbott Elementary,” both of whom have been nominated in the past and could well be again.

Predicted nominees: Colman Domingo, “The Four Seasons”; Paul W. Downs, “Hacks”; Harrison Ford, “Shrinking”; Ebon Moss-Bachrach, “The Bear”; Nick Offerman, “Margo’s Got Money Troubles”; Stephen Root, “Widow’s Bay”; Michael Urie, “Shrinking”

Watch out for: Daniel Radcliffe, “The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins”; Tyler James Williams, “Abbott Elementary”; Bowen Yang, “Saturday Night Live”

Abbott-Elementary
Sheryl Lee Ralph and Charlie Day in “Abbott Elementary” (Disney/Gilles Mingasson)

Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series Number of nominees: 7

Michelle Pfeiffer will almost certainly be nominated for her work in “Margo’s Got Money Troubles,” but the big questions in this category concern a pair of other contenders: Megan Stalter, who has been a major presence on “Hacks” without ever earning a nomination, and Kate O’Flynn, a quiet breakout in “Widow’s Bay” who started to get attention late in the eligibility period.

The category will certainly be filled out with several returning nominees, with 2005 winner Hannah Einbinder likely to repeat and Liza Colon-Zayas (“The Bear”), Jessica Williams (“Shrinking”) and the “Abbott Elementary” pair of Janelle James and Sheryl Lee Ralph back in the running. And of course you can never count out the legendary Carol Burnett, who is eligible for the final season of “Palm Royale.”

Predicted nominees: Hannah Einbinder, “Hacks”; Kate O’Flynn, “Widow’s Bay”; Janelle James, “Abbott Elementary”; Michelle Pfeiffer, “Margo’s Got Money Troubles”; Sheryl Lee Ralph, “Abbott Elementary”; Megan Stalter, “Hacks”; Jessica Williams, “Shrinking”

Watch out for: Carol Burnett, “Palm Royale”; Liza Colon-Zayas, “The Bear”; Laurie Metcalf, “Big Mistakes”

The-Diplomat
Keri Russell as Kate Wyler, Rufus Sewell as Hal Wyler, Allison Janney as Grace Penn, Rory Kinnear as Nicol Trowbridge, David Gyasi as Austin Dennison in “The Diplomat” (Clifton Prescod/Netflix)

Drama Categories

Outstanding Drama Series Number of nominees: 8

Most likely, half the category will be repeat nominees from last year, with “Slow Horses,” “Paradise,” “The Diplomat” and the reigning winner, “The Pitt.” Those are the only four 2025 nominees eligible again this year, so they’ll be joined by a quartet drawn from new shows and past nominees that weren’t eligible in 2025.

Vince Gilligan’s “Pluribus” is the one new show all but guaranteed a nomination, with “Task” a strong contender as well and newcomers “A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms,” “The Testaments,” “The Madison” and “The Audacity” in the mix. Among returning shows, the final seasons of “Stranger Things” and “Euphoria” are hard to ignore, while past nominees “The Gilded Age,” “The Boys,” “Fallout” and “The Morning Show” can’t be counted out. For the last two spots, we’re going for “A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms” (because its predecessor, “Game of Thrones,” was an Emmy monster) and “Stranger Things” (which has been nominated for all four of its previous seasons).

Predicted nominees: “The Diplomat,” “A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms,” “Paradise,” “The Pitt,” “Pluribus,” “Slow Horses,” “Stranger Things,” “Task”

Watch out for: “Euphoria,” “The Gilded Age,” “The Testaments”

Sepideh Moafi and Noah Wyle in “The Pitt” (HBO Max)

Lead Actor in a Drama Series Number of nominees: 5

Reigning champ Noah Wyle (“The Pitt”), past nominees Gary Oldman (“Slow Horses”) and Sterling K. Brown (“Paradise”) and first-year contender Mark Ruffalo (“Task”) seem to have firm grasps on four of the five slots in this category. That leaves a dogfight for the last spot, with contenders including Walton Goggins for “Fallout,” Billy Bob Thornton for “Landman,” Rufus Sewell for “The Diplomat,” Jon Hamm for “Your Friends and Neighbors,” Billy Magnussen for “The Audacity” and Peter Claffey for “A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms,” among others.

Taylor Sheridan’s shows don’t usually receive much love from Emmy voters, but we’re guessing that Thornton edges out Goggins and Sewell.

Predicted nominees: Sterling K. Brown, “Paradise”; Gary Oldman, “Slow Horses”; Mark Ruffalo, “Task”; Billy Bob Thornton, “Landman”; Noah Wyle, “The Pitt”

Watch out for: Walton Goggins, “Fallout”; Jon Hamm, “Your Friends and Neighbors”; Rufus Sewell, “The Diplomat”

Rhea Seehorn in “Pluribus” (Apple TV)

Lead Actress in a Drama Series Number of nominees: 5

Only two of last year’s nominees, Kathy Bates (“Matlock”) and Keri Russell (“The Diplomat”), are eligible this year, and they’re both liable to be repeat nominees. Zendaya won in 2020 and 2022 for the first two seasons of “Euphoria,” so it figures she’ll be nominated for the much-delayed third season. Also in the mix: past nominees Carrie Coon (“The Gilded Age”) and Jennifer Aniston and Reese Witherspoon (“The Morning Show”); veterans Michelle Pfeiffer and Kristin Scott Thomas for “The Madison” and “Margo’s Got Money Troubles,” respectively; the past Oscar season’s breakout star, Chase Infiniti, who segued from big-screen hit “One Battle After Another” to the new TV series “The Testaments”; and Rhea Seehorn, nominated in the past for “Better Call Saul” and back with a vengeance in “Pluribus.”

Seehorn, Russell and Zendaya feel like locks and Bates is beloved, which leaves one opening that could go to Infiniti, Pfeiffer, Aniston or Coon.

Predicted nominees: Kathy Bates, “Matlock”; Chase Infiniti, “The Testaments”; Keri Russell, “The Diplomat”; Rhea Seehorn, “Pluribus”; Zendaya, “Euphoria”

Watch out for: Jennifer Aniston, “The Morning Show”; Carrie Coon, “The Gilded Age”; Michelle Pfeiffer, “The Madison”

tom-pelphrey-mark-ruffalo
Tom Pelphrey and Mark Ruffalo in “Task” (Credit: HBO)

Supporting Actor in a Drama Series Number of nominees: 7

The supporting drama categories are where we’ll see how strong defending drama-series winner “The Pitt” is. Last year, its largely unknown supporting cast was overlooked with the exception of Katherine LaNasa, who won in the supporting actress category, and Shawn Hatosy, who won in guest actor. This year, they’re better known, with three strong contenders in supporting actor: Hatosy, who moved from guest to supporting, along with Patrick Ball and Gerran Howell. Hatosy and Ball are prohibitive favorites to be nominated, with Howell likely to make the cut as well.

If “The Pitt” takes three slots, that’ll leave room for three-time nominee and two-time”winner Billy Crudup for “The Morning Show,” 2024 nominee Jack Lowden for “Slow Horses” and for a couple of actors who made an impact in new shows, Tom Pelphrey for “Task” and Carlos-Manuel Vesga for “Pluribus.” But there are other wildcards lurking, notably including Dexter Sol Ansell, who plays Egg in “A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms” and, at 11, is two years younger than “Adolescence” star Owen Cooper, who last year became the youngest-ever male actor to win an Emmy.

Predicted nominees: Patrick Ball, “The Pitt”; Billy Crudup, “The Morning Show”; Shawn Hatosy, “The Pitt”; Gerran Howell, “The Pitt”; Jack Lowden, “Slow Horses”; Tom Pelphrey, “Task”; Carlos-Manuel Vesga, “Pluribus”

Watch out for: Adewale Akinnuoye-Agbaje, “Euphoria”; Dexter Sol Ansell, “A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms”; Ato Essandoh, “The Diplomat”

The-Pitt
Taylor Dearden and Isa Briones in “The Pitt” Season 2 finale (HBO Max)

Supporting Actress in a Drama Series Number of nominees: 7

Here’s where “The Pitt” could really show its strength. Seven members of its main cast are entered in this category, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if four of them were nominated, starting with 2025 winner Katherine LaNasa and also including Taylor Dearden, Sepideh Moafi and one more from the quartet of Isa Briones, Supriya Ganesh, Fiona Dourif and Shabana Azeez.

At least three non-“Pitt” actresses seem inescapable: Allison Janney for “The Diplomat,” Julianne Nicholson for “Paradise” and Karolina Wydra for “Pluribus.” But that leaves out Ann Dowd, a three-time nominee and one-time winner for “The Handmaid’s Tale” before playing the same role in “The Testaments”; Emilia Jones, who plays a key role in “Task”; and Sydney Sweeney, a past nominee for “Euphoria.”

Predicted nominees: Isa Briones, “The Pitt”; Taylor Dearden, “The Pitt”; Allison Janney, “The Diplomat”; Katherine LaNasa, “The Pitt”; Sepideh Moafi, “The Pitt”; Julianne Nicholson, “Paradise”; Karolina Wydra, “Pluribus”

Watch out for: Ann Dowd, “The Testaments”; Emilia Jones, “Task”; Supriya Ganesh, “The Pitt”

Sarah Pidgeon and Paul Anthony Kelly in “Love Story” (FX)

Limited Series and Movie Categories

Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series Number of nominees: 5

The category that in recent years has produced Emmy juggernauts like “Adolescence,” “Baby Reindeer,” “Beef,” “The White Lotus” (before it moved to the drama series category) and “Watchmen” seems far more up in the air this time around. There’s another “Beef,” another Ryan Murphy torn-from-the-headlines series (“Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bessette”), a grim return for “Baby Reindeer” creator Richard Gadd (“Half Man”), a grim literary adaptation (“Lord of the Flies”), a grim true-crime story (“Monster: The Ed Gein Story”) and some miniseries whose grimness is captured in their titles: “The Beast in Me,” “Something Very Bad Is Going to Happen,” “Monster: The Ed Gein Story.”

What there isn’t, at this point, is any kind of consensus. “Beef,” “Love Story,” “DTF St. Louis” and “The Beast in Me” might be the likeliest nominees, or two of them might not make the cut at all. And maybe the period piece “Death by Lightning” could be a dark horse, buoyed by performances by Michael Shannon and Matthew Macfadyen and by its easily bingable four-episode, four-hour running time.

Predicted nominees: “The Beast in Me,” “Beef,” “Half Man,” “DTF St. Louis,” “Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bessette”

Watch out for: “All Her Fault,” “Black Rabbit,” “Death by Lightning”

“Remarkably Bright Creatures” (Netflix)
“Remarkably Bright Creatures” (Netflix)

Outstanding Movie Number of nominees: 5

When it comes to star power and buzz, the television movie category is significantly more modest than limited series these days. The closest thing to a frontrunner is probably “Remarkably Bright Creatures,” with Sally Field and Lewis Pullman in an adaptation of the Shelby Van Pelt book. Though it came out last June, at the beginning of the eligibility period, the British comedy “Deep Cover” might also receive some affection from voters.

Other contenders include a rom-com, “People We Meet on Vacation”; a biopic that premiered at last year’s Toronto Film Festival, “Swiped”; a drama from Sundance, “Miss You, Love You”; a sci-fi comedy from SXSW, “Mike & Nick & Nick & Alice”; and the latest installment in an action-flick franchise, “Jack Ryan: Ghost War.”

Predicted nominees: “Deep Cover,” “Mike and Nick and Nick and Alice,” “Miss You, Love You,” “Remarkably Bright Creatures,” “Swiped”

Watch out for: “Jack Ryan: Ghost War,” “People We Meet on Vacation”; “Ruth and Boaz”

Monster: The Ed Gein Story
Charlie Hunnam as Ed Gein in “Monster: The Ed Gein Story” (Credit: Netflix)

Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie Number of nominees: 5

The first season of “Beef” resulted in five acting nominations, and the second could do the same. Oscar Isaac is certainly near the top of most Emmy-watchers’ lists in this category, along with Matthew Rhys, angling for a nom his dramatic performance in “The Beast in Me” to go with one for his comedic turn in “Widow’s Bay.” Other strong contenders are Charlie Hunnam for “Monster: The Ed Gein Story” (which would make him the third actor to be nominated for playing a real-life killer in Ryan Murphy’s anthology series “Monster”), Jamie Bell in “Half Man,” Paul Anthony Kelly in “Love Story,” Jason Bateman in “Black Rabbit” and Lewis Pullman in the one TV-movie performance in the mix, in “Remarkably Bright Creatures.”

Worthy dark horses include Michael Shannon and Matthew Macfadyen in “Death by Lightning” and Riz Ahmed in “Bait.”

Predicted nominees: Jamie Bell, “Half Man”; Charlie Hunnam, “Monster: The Ed Gein Story”; Matthew Macfadyen, “Death by Lightning”; Oscar Isaac, “Beef”; Matthew Rhys, “The Beast in Me”

Watch out for: Riz Ahmed, “Bait”; Paul Anthony Kelly, “Love Story”; Lewis Pullman, “Remarkably Bright Creatures”

Carey Mulligan in
Carey Mulligan in “Beef” Season 2 (Netflix)

Lead Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie Number of nominees: 5

The top three in this category appear to be Carey Mulligan for “Beef,” Claire Danes for “The Beast in Me” and Sarah Pidgeon in “Love Story,” with Sarah Snook for “All Her Fault” and Sally Field for “Remarkably Bright Creatures” close behind. This is the smallest of the 16 long-form acting categories, with only 41 performances qualifying.

Predicted nominees: Claire Danes, “The Beast in Me”; Sally Field, “Remarkably Bright Creatures”; Carey Mulligan, “Beef”; Sarah Pidgeon, “Love Story”; Sarah Snook, “All Her Fault”

Watch out for: Patricia Arquette, “Murdaugh: Death in the Family”; Camilla Morrone, “Something Very Bad Is Going to Happen”; Kerry Washington, “Imperfect Women”

DTF St Louis
Jason Batmen and David Harbour in “DTF St Louis” (Photo Credit: HBO)

Supporting Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie Number of nominees: 6

This category had 84 submissions, enough to trigger an increase from five to six nominees, but it fell by 40 entries over 2025, the biggest drop in any acting category. It’s led by David Harbour and Jason Bateman for “DTF St. Louis,” with Richard Gadd for “Half Man,” Charles Melton for “Beef” and Alessandro Nivola for “Love Story” on their heels. Contenders for the last spot include Troy Kotsur (“Black Rabbit”), Jonathan Banks (“The Beast in Me”), Nick Offerman (“Death by Lightning”), Song Kang Ho (“Beef”) and young David McKenna (“Lord of the Flies”). Offerman is something of a longshot, but his performance as drunken VP Chester A. Arthur is also pretty irresistible.

Predicted nominees: Jason Bateman, “DTF St. Louis”; Richard Gadd, “Half Man”; David Harbour, “DTF St. Louis”; Charles Melton, “Beef”; Alessandro Nivola, “Love Story”; Nick Offerman, “Death by Lightning”

Watch out for: Jonathan Banks, “The Beast in Me”; Troy Kotsur, “Black Rabbit”; Song Kang Ho, “Beef”

Jason Jin, Youn Yuh-jung, Seoyeon Jang in “Beef” (Netflix)

Supporting Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie Number of nominees: 6

You can count on this category having two or more nominees from the same show, something that has happened 11 times in the last 12 years (with a peak in 2022, when five of the nominees were from “The White Lotus” and the other two were from “Dopesick”). This year, “Beef,” “Love Story,” “Monster: The Ed Gein Story” and “All Her Fault” all have multiple contenders, with the first two likely to score multiple noms. Programs in the running for single actresses include “DTF St. Louis” (Linda Cardellini) and “The Beast in Me” (Brittany Snow).

Predicted nominees: Linda Cardellini, “DTF St. Louis”; Grace Gummer, “Love Story”; Laurie Metcalf, “Monster: The Ed Gein Story”; Cailee Spaeny, “Beef”; Naomi Watts, “Love Story”; Yuh-Jung Youn, “Beef”

Watch out for: Dakota Fanning, “All Her Fault”; Brittany Snow, “The Beast in Me”; Constance Zimmer, “Love Story”

Survivor 50
MrBeast, Rick Devens and Jeff Probst in “Survivor 50” (CBS)

Variety and Reality Categories

Outstanding Variety Series Number of nominees: 5

For years, we’ve been pointing out that the number of eligible shows in the variety-talk and scripted-variety categories was so small that Emmy rules called for the two to be consolidated into a single category. That consolidation happened this year, with talk shows and scripted shows now part of a single Outstanding Variety Series category. Even combined, the category has only 18 entries, the bare minimum needed to reach five nominees – and those five must be divided between talk shows and scripted shows based on the ratio of those two genres among qualifying programs.

If the Television Academy classifies “Comics Unleashed” as a scripted show rather than a talk show (essentially, it’s the former pretending to be the latter), that appears to give the category 12 talk shows and six scripted ones, which would mean three talk and two scripted nominees. Assuming that’s the case, “Saturday Night Live” and “Last Week Tonight With John Oliver” are locks for the two scripted slots.

For the three talk nominees, it’s almost as cut-and-dried. “The Daily Show,” “Jimmy Kimmel Live!” and the final season of “The Late Show With Stephen Colbert” have the inside track, despite the presence of Jimmy Fallon and Bill Maher and new shows from YouTube and elsewhere.

If the nomination round of voting looks cut and dried, things will get interesting – because the new category has been classified an “area” category, where each nominee gets an independent yes or no vote, and any one with 90% yesses wins an Emmy. So there could be one winner, two winners, five winners …

Predicted nominees: “The Daily Show,” “Jimmy Kimmel Live!,” “Last Week Tonight With John Oliver,” “The Late Show With Stephen Colbert,” “Saturday Night Live”

Watch out for: “Hot Ones,” “Late Night With Seth Meyers,” “The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon”

Alan Cumming in “The Traitors” Season 4 Episode 2 (Credit: Euan Cherry/PEACOCK)

Outstanding Reality Competition Program Number of nominees: 5

Could there be any kind of surprise here? That seems unlikely, given how hard it is for new shows to break into the category. “The Traitors” has won the last two years in a row, “RuPaul’s Drag Race” won five times before that, “The Amazing Race” and “Top Chef” have 22 and 19 nominations, respectively, and “Survivor” got a boost from its well-received 50th (!) season. You can’t rule out 13-time nominee and four-time winner “The Voice” muscling in, and “Funny AF With Kevin Hart” is the one new show with an outside shot, but for the most part it looks as if we’ve got five locks.

Predicted nominees: “The Amazing Race,” “RuPaul’s Drag Race,” “Survivor,” “Top Chef,” “The Traitors”

Watch out for: “Funny AF with Kevin Hart,” “Project Runway,” “The Voice”

RuPaul, Miley Cyrus
RuPaul and Miley Cyrus for “Drag Race” Season 18 (MTV)

Outstanding Host for a Reality or Competition Program Number of nominees: 5

Over the course of this decade, the 32 nominations in this category have been divvied up between only nine shows. RuPaul Charles has been nominated every year; “Top Chef” has been nominated every year whether it was hosted by Padma Lakshmi, Kristen Kish or Lakshmi with co-hosts; the businesspeople who host “Shark Tank” have been nominated five out of six years; and “Queer Eye” has four noms, though none since 2023.

This year’s favorites are the relative newcomer who’s won the last two years in a row, Alan Cumming (“The Traitors”), and the guy who won in the category’s first four years, 2008-2011, but then wasn’t nominated again until 2024. Kevin Hart has a real chance at breaking into the exclusive club for “Funny AF With Kevin Hart,” but otherwise we should expect the usual suspects.

Predicted nominees: RuPaul Charles, “RuPaul’s Drag Race”; Alan Cumming, “The Traitors”; Kevin Hart, “Funny AF With Kevin Hart”; Kristen Kish, “Top Chef”; Jeff Probst, “Survivor”

Watch out for: Padma Lakshmi, “America’s Culinary Cup”; Jeremiah Brent, Karamo Brown, Tan France, Antoni Porowski and Jonathan Van Ness, “Queer Eye”; Barbara Corcoran, Lori Greiner, Robert Herjavec, Daymond John, Daniel Lubezky and Kevin O’Leary, “Shark Tank”

The post Emmy Nomination Predictions: Which Newcomers Break Through? appeared first on TheWrap.

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