America’s biggest oil companies are poised to post their strongest quarterly earnings in years — as President Donald Trump has been ramping up pressure on the industry to lower gas prices ahead of November’s midterm elections.
Exxon Mobil and Chevron are expected to report second-quarter profits that are more than three times higher than in the first three months of the year, fueled by a surge in crude prices after the US-Israeli conflict with Iran disrupted global energy markets, Reuters reported.
LSEG estimates project Exxon will earn roughly $15.9 billion in adjusted net income, while Chevron is forecast to post about $9.9 billion.
The anticipated windfall could create political headaches for the White House, which has made lowering fuel costs a priority as drivers continue to face elevated prices at the pump.
“Gasoline Retailers must get their Prices down, IMMEDIATELY!” Trump wrote in a June 29 social media post.
Although benchmark crude has largely retreated to levels seen before the conflict, gasoline prices remain significantly higher.
Analysts attribute the disconnect to tight fuel inventories, strong export demand and unusually high refining margins rather than crude prices alone.
The administration has intensified scrutiny of the industry, with the Justice Department examining potential gasoline price gouging.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has also warned refiners and producers that additional administrative measures remain possible if retail prices fail to fall.
Behind the scenes, oil industry lobbyists have increased outreach to lawmakers and administration officials as companies seek to counter criticism over fuel prices.
Industry executives argue they have only limited control over what consumers ultimately pay, noting that refining costs, transportation, marketing expenses and taxes account for much of the final price.
Trade groups echoed that argument, saying gasoline prices are influenced by numerous factors beyond crude oil, including regulatory requirements such as renewable fuel mandates.
“Gasoline prices don’t move in lockstep with crude oil, especially during a major global disruption affecting supply, refining and inventories,” Bethany Williams, a spokesperson for the American Petroleum Institute, told Reuters.
Analysts expect the second quarter to produce the industry’s strongest results since 2022, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent energy markets soaring.
Much of the earnings growth is being driven by a sharp rebound in refining profitability.
According to energy advisory firm TPH, gasoline refining margins averaged about $25 per barrel during the quarter, while diesel margins climbed to roughly $45 per barrel — their highest levels since mid-2022.
Strong overseas demand for US fuel exports further boosted refiners after supply disruptions abroad.
Despite continued frustration among motorists over gasoline prices, analysts at BMO Capital Markets expect the major oil companies to keep prioritizing shareholder returns through expanded stock buybacks rather than increasing production.
Industry executives maintain that profits naturally rise and fall with market cycles, arguing that periods of high earnings often follow times when companies absorb significant financial risk during weaker markets.
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