It will be families that do much of the heavy lifting for the lucrative Fourth of July box office weekend, as the strongly performing “Toy Story 5” will be joined by Universal/Illumination’s “Minions & Monsters,” which isn’t tracking as strongly as past Illumination films released on this holiday but should have a successful run nonetheless.
Industry projections have the film earning a five-day opening of at least $65 million, which would be a considerable drop from the $123 million extended opening of “Minions: The Rise of Gru” in 2022 and the $122 million of “Despicable Me 4” in 2024. But theatrical sources tell TheWrap they believe the film will reach the $80 million range by Sunday.
The reason for the lower figures has little, if anything, to do with the Minions, who have endured as Illumination’s most popular characters since “Despicable Me” launched the studio in 2010. With this Saturday’s Fourth of July being the 250th for the United States, theater owners are expecting that barbecues, fireworks and other outdoor festivities will take precedence over moviegoing.
There’s also the FIFA World Cup, which will see top teams like Argentina, France and Brazil play knockout round games over the weekend while Team USA plays its knockout round game Wednesday as “Minions & Monsters” opens on an estimated 4,000 screens.
Still, as long as the Minions are the Minions — which they will be — their return should bring out families throughout the month of July. While critics have never had any significant bearing on the fortunes of this franchise, “Minions & Monsters” has earned the highest Rotten Tomatoes score of any “Minions” film, standing at 90% with 52 reviews logged as of Wednesday. The film’s ode to Hollywood’s earliest years in its first half, packed with clever silent film references, got a particular thumbs up from reviewers.
But it also bears noting that with two popular animated franchises in theaters and Disney sending in a remake of “Moana” next weekend, the competition for families’ time and money will be intense. It will be worth keeping an eye on weekday grosses after the Fourth of July, as insiders at the Texas-based theater chain Santikos Entertainment told TheWrap that “Toy Story 5” sold 5,000 more tickets in its theaters on its opening Tuesday than it did on its opening Sunday.
This suggests that parents who want to go to theaters with their kids but are mindful of gas prices and other economic issues are looking to their local cinema’s discount days to keep moviegoing affordable. It’s those days that may allow both Disney and Universal’s films to flourish this month and stretch out the legs for “Toy Story 5,” “Minions & Monsters,” and “Moana” while general audiences turn out for July offerings like “The Odyssey,” “Spider-Man: Brand New Day,” and for those who aren’t squeamish, “Evil Dead Burn.”
As for holdovers, “Toy Story 5,” which is crossing $600 million worldwide, should add around $40 million in its third weekend in release, while Warner Bros./DC’s “Supergirl” isn’t expected to make more than $15 million in its second weekend after opening to a very lackluster $37.1 million domestically.
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