President Trump is sending mixed signals about Venezuela.
He has authorized covert action against the South American nation and warned last week that the United States could “very soon” expand its attacks from boats off the Venezuelan coast to targets inside the country. But Mr. Trump has also recently spoken by phone with Nicolás Maduro, the country’s president, about a possible meeting.
Venezuela’s government said on Tuesday that it had approved a request from the United States for a migrant repatriation flight, days after Mr. Trump declared Venezuelan airspace “closed in its entirety,” although he has no authority over it.
According to people close to the Venezuelan government, Mr. Maduro believes he can remain in control and ride out the gravest threat to his 12-year rule.
The boat strikes by the U.S. military, which the Trump administration says are intended to stop drug smuggling, have killed more than 80 people since early September. They are now the subject of intense bipartisan scrutiny in the United States.
Here’s what to know about the threats to take military action against Venezuela and the Maduro regime.
Why is the U.S. threatening Venezuela?
The Trump administration says it is targeting Venezuela to stop the flow of illegal drugs. But the country is not a source of illicit fentanyl to the United States, and Colombia and Mexico are much more important players in the global narcotics trade. There is some evidence that members of Mr. Maduro’s regime have profited from it.
There are factions within the Trump administration who have pushed to overthrow Mr. Maduro or to pressure Venezuela into opening its oil industry to more American companies.
How many American troops are deployed?
The U.S. military presence in the Caribbean is the largest in decades, with more than 15,000 personnel now in the region. In November, the U.S. Navy moved its largest and most advanced aircraft carrier, the Gerald R. Ford, to the area.
Roughly half of military personnel are in Puerto Rico and half aboard eight warships.
Last week, the president of the Dominican Republic said he would allow the U.S. military to temporarily operate inside certain restricted areas to refuel aircraft and to transport equipment and technical personnel.
Are the boat strikes legal?
Experts in laws governing the use of armed force have denounced the strikes as illegal because the U.S. military is not allowed to intentionally target civilians who pose no threat of imminent violence.
The administration has argued that the strikes are lawful because Mr. Trump has “determined” that the United States is in a formal armed conflict with drug cartels and that those on the boats are therefore “combatants.”
Starting with an attack on Sept. 2, the Trump administration has said it has carried out 21 such strikes in the Caribbean Sea and eastern Pacific Ocean, killing 83 people.
Members of Congress of both parties have called to examine whether a follow-up strike on Sept. 2, which killed survivors, may have amounted to a crime. They have raised questions about the decision and the orders issued by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.
Is Venezuela prepared for a U.S. attack?
Venezuela’s government has spent billions of dollars over the years on weapons and security services from Russia, Iran, China and Cuba. But few experts believe Venezuela would be able to withstand a concerted assault by the U.S. military.
Estimates vary widely, but Venezuela is thought to have more than 30 working combat aircraft, more than 40 navy vessels and as many as 200 tanks. Venezuela also maintains one of Latin America’s largest standing armies. Across all branches, Venezuela has about 150,000 members in its armed forces, said John Polga-Hecimovich, a Venezuela scholar at the U.S. Naval Academy.
Venezuela also has armed pro-Maduro cells called colectivos that function as paramilitary enforcers. While they have never been tested in battle, these groups could make re-establishing order after an invasion more difficult.
Mr. Maduro has tried to protect himself from a potential U.S. attack by frequently changing sleeping locations and cellphones, according to multiple people close to the Venezuelan government. He has also expanded the role of Cuban bodyguards in his personal security detail and attached more Cuban counterintelligence officers to Venezuela’s military, one of the people said.
Will Venezuela’s military stay loyal to Maduro?
Venezuela is no stranger to coup attempts. Hugo Chávez, who preceded Mr. Maduro, rose to prominence after organizing a failed coup in 1992. After taking power, Mr. Chávez was briefly ousted in another coup in 2002.
Mr. Maduro has thwarted at least nine military mutinies.
There are many unknowns if Venezuela’s president is overthrown: Will the armed forces support a new interim leader? Who will guard critical infrastructure like airports, oil fields and power plants? Could the military splinter into different factions?
Geography is another factor. Venezuela is twice the size of California, and guerrillas from neighboring Colombia hold sway in parts of the country. Asserting territorial control could prove more challenging than in smaller countries the United States has invaded.
Julian E. Barnes, Eric Schmitt and Charlie Savage contributed reporting.
Simon Romero is a Times correspondent covering Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean. He is based in Mexico City.
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