The Democrat did not win the special election on Tuesday in Tennessee, but the Democratic Party is still taking a victory lap.
That’s because progressive Democrat Aftyn Behn dramatically overperformed in the deep red state, giving Democrats fresh confidence heading into the midterms.
Behn lost the race by less than nine points in a district Trump won last year by 22 points.
“Republicans should be running for the hills this morning, because the blue wave is building,” declared CNN’s data guru Harry Enten while breaking down the numbers.
The 13-point shift means more GOP seats are competitive in the 2026 election, and Republicans will have to spend more to defend their slim majority.
Democrats are emboldened. The momentum shift started with the off-year election results one month ago. Now, they’re seizing on Tuesday night’s overperformance.
“Tonight’s election results prove exactly what the DCCC has known all along—Democrats are on offense not just in the standard swing districts but in red terrain across the country,” said spokesperson Madison Andrus.
She argued the Democratic Party was ready to fight in Trump country as every single county in Tennessee’s special election shifted blue.
The House democratic campaign arm has been eyeing 35 seats as competitive in next year’s election.
With the results on Tuesday showing a 13-point shift, they’re more confident than ever that even seats that were once a stretch are definitely in play, including the open seat in Kentucky, where the Republican won it by 26 points last year.
Some Republicans, including Speaker Mike Johnson, downplayed the dramatic shift in the district, but analysts believe they have every reason to be sweating behind closed doors.
Republicans currently control the House with just 219 seats to Democrats’ 213. When Van Epps is sworn in, they will hold a seven-seat majority, but it will drop back down when Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene resigns in January.
“America is clearly disgusted with these GOP extremists,” wrote House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries of the Tennessee results.
The House Democratic leader has repeatedly predicted that Democrats will retake the chamber next year, but now there is some data to back it up.
The turnout in the special election on Tuesday was similar to the turnout in the 2022 midterm election, so it could reflect what’s to come. And next year’s election will take place without Trump at the top of the ticket to help juice GOP turnout.
If Behn’s watch party were anything to go on, one would not know that the candidate had lost. The room was brimming with excitement.
Behn noted that the campaign outperformed every metric. She vowed it was just the beginning.
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