Democratic strategist James Carville is predicting an upset in deep-red Mississippi, declaring that Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith is rattled by her Democratic challenger.
“Cindy Hyde-Smith is as nervous as a cat in a room full of rocking chairs,” the famed Ragin’ Cajun wrote in a fundraising email for Scott Colom, the Lowndes County district attorney challenging Hyde-Smith in November.
Carville, the architect of Bill Clinton’s 1992 win, vouched for Colom in characteristically blunt terms. “This isn’t my first rodeo. I know a winner when I see one,” he wrote, predicting that “Mississippi is going to have a Democratic Senator by the end of 2026, and his name is Scott Colom.” He argued Hyde-Smith is “one of the most vulnerable Senators in office,” claiming Colom had already outraised her and pulled the race into “a statistical tie.”
There is some real evidence the contest has narrowed. An April poll from the SPLC Action Fund and Impact Research found Colom trailing Hyde-Smith by just 3 points, a sharp tightening from a 13-point deficit the previous June, as Colom’s name recognition climbed. The two also have history: Hyde-Smith blocked Colom’s nomination to a federal judgeship during the Biden administration, citing his past ties to a George Soros-funded PAC.
But the broader picture remains daunting for any Mississippi Democrat. No Democrat has won a Senate race in the state since 1982, and Donald Trump carried Mississippi by 23 points in 2024. The same April poll that showed Colom within 3 points also found a generic Republican Senate candidate leading by 13, underscoring how much of his standing rests on his own profile rather than a shift in the state’s partisan lean. Independent candidate Ty Pinkins, the 2024 Democratic nominee, is also on the ballot and could split the anti-Hyde-Smith vote.
If he pulls it off, Colom would make history as Mississippi’s first Black senator since Reconstruction. He has run as a tough-on-crime Democrat, hammering Hyde-Smith over her vote for Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill,” which he says will strip health coverage from more than 100,000 Mississippians.
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