At a recent party in Los Angeles, I asked a veteran awards player how he felt about this year’s Oscar race. Before I’d finished my sentence, he was already shaking his head.
“Are there even 10 movies this year that are good enough for best picture?” he replied.
I don’t share his disillusionment, since every year offers plenty of great movies if you know where to look. (See recent indies like “Rebuilding,” “Lurker” and “Urchin” for further proof.) Still, when it comes to more traditionally shaped Oscar fare, he was articulating a concern I keep hearing from voters and pundits: They believe there are only five strong contenders this year, then an awfully steep drop to the next tier of wannabes.
What caused this softer-than-expected batch of Oscar bait? Some films that seemed like strong critical contenders received chillier reactions once they debuted, leaving their festival launchpads with less-than-robust liftoffs. And while Oscar voters often gravitate to box-office winners, so many adult-skewing dramas have underperformed this season — like “The Smashing Machine” and “Roofman” — that the final pool of contenders will inevitably include a few financial disappointments.
In a race so wide open that Apple is buying best picture billboards for the glossy but empty “F1,” which are the fortunate five films expected to earn the lion’s share of nominations this year? The presumed front-runners include two well-reviewed, star-driven hits (“One Battle After Another” and “Sinners”), two emotional dramas (“Hamnet” and “Sentimental Value”) and the still-to-come “Marty Supreme,” topped by a killer performance from Timothée Chalamet.
After that, it’s anyone’s guess.
“Wicked: For Good” and “Avatar: Fire and Ash” follow earlier installments that earned best picture nominations, but we’re long past the “Lord of the Rings” days when a series gained awards strength as it went on. Recent franchise flicks like “Dune: Part Two” and “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” earned far fewer nominations than their series openers. Mixed reviews for “Wicked: For Good” may keep it on the best picture bubble this season, though it remains a strong contender in categories like supporting actress and costume design.
Netflix has four films vying for a best picture slot, but with none of them considered front-runners to win in a top category, it’s unclear how many will actually make it in. Guillermo del Toro’s “Frankenstein” could be the strongest of the bunch: The Oscar-winning director is a charming campaigner and the film is certain to at least be nominated in a slew of technical categories. Kathryn Bigelow’s thriller “A House of Dynamite” and the showbiz comedy “Jay Kelly” (starring George Clooney) have their fans, but I’ve heard too many voters griping that they should be better. Perhaps that creates an opening for “Train Dreams,” an elegiac period drama that’s quietly building industry support.
Some contenders hope to tread the same path as previous Oscar favorites. “Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere” recalls last year’s Bob Dylan biopic, “A Complete Unknown” — with more middling reviews and box office — while the “Poor Things” duo of Emma Stone and Yorgos Lanthimos reteamed for “Bugonia,” which made less noise. Later this month, members of the team behind “The Brutalist” present their Shaker musical, “The Testament of Ann Lee,” while Bradley Cooper offers his third directorial effort, the marriage dramedy “Is This Thing On?” And you should always keep an eye out for veteran campaigner Sony Pictures Classics, targeting older votes with “Nuremberg” and “Blue Moon.”
Recent best picture lineups have made more room for international films, so the Scandinavian “Sentimental Value” could have plenty of company. Jafar Panahi’s taut moral fable, “It Was Just an Accident,” ought to break into the best picture and director races, propelled by that Iranian filmmaker’s prestigious Palme d’Or win at Cannes. (The movie also picked up three Gotham Awards on Monday.) Brazilians hope “The Secret Agent” will overachieve like their Oscar-winning “I’m Still Here,” though this political drama may fare better in the best actor race with its star, Wagner Moura. And while Oscar voters have never warmed to the South Korean director Park Chan-wook (“Decision to Leave,” “Oldboy”), he will contend again with “No Other Choice,” which plays like a kooky riff on “Parasite.”
But if Oscar voters aren’t afraid to get a little wild, why not ”Weapons”? The horror hit has a legitimate supporting actress contender in Amy Madigan and could even compete in the original screenplay race, the kind of haul that usually means a best picture nomination is within reach. Though “Weapons” may not have the obvious thematic resonance of last year’s gory nominee “The Substance,” it’s got verve to spare, and who wouldn’t want to watch Aunt Gladys square off with the returning Oscar host, Conan O’Brien, in an epic battle of the gingers?
Kyle Buchanan is a pop culture reporter and also serves as The Projectionist, the awards season columnist for The Times.
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