Results in the primary runoff races in Georgia will begin arriving shortly after polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern time. But if things play out as they did in the regular primaries last month, it may take a while for a full picture to emerge.
In those May elections, the first returns in the state skewed toward candidates with stronger rural support, like Representative Mike Collins in the Republican primary for Senate and Lt. Gov. Burt Jones in the Republican primary for governor. But the picture shifted once the populous Atlanta-area counties reported their results later in the evening, letting their respective opponents, Derek Dooley and Rick Jackson, close some of the gap.
On Tuesday, the biggest questions are how voters will realign with only two candidates on the ballot, and where changes in turnout — which typically drops from a primary to a runoff — will alter the math.
Complicating matters are a pair of last-minute endorsements. President Trump endorsed Mr. Collins in the Senate race, and Gov. Brian Kemp endorsed Mr. Jones for governor (Mr. Kemp had endorsed Mr. Dooley in the Senate race before the primary, and Mr. Trump had endorsed Mr. Jones for governor). Their support could alter the coalitions considerably.
There are a few key areas to watch as the results unfold.
Atlanta metro area
More than 30 percent of the vote in May came from Atlanta, which straddles DeKalb and Fulton counties, and its surrounding areas, which include Cherokee, Clayton, Cobb, Douglas, Fayette, Forsyth, Gwinnett, Henry and Rockdale counties.
In the Senate primary, Mr. Dooley received the bulk of his support in this region. He topped all his opponents in Fulton, Cobb and Gwinnett counties — the three largest in the metro area. And the margin he can achieve, as well as turnout in this area compared to others, will be crucial for him if he hopes to overcome Mr. Collins’s significant strengths elsewhere in the state.
In the governor’s race, the Atlanta area is somewhat up for grabs as it was an area of support for Brad Raffensperger, who placed third overall in the first round. Mr. Raffensperger won DeKalb County outright, and received more than 20 percent of the vote in Fulton and Gwinnett counties, leaving a large group of voters who could be pulled into either Mr. Jones’s or Mr. Jackson’s coalition.
Southeast Georgia
Both Senate candidates are looking to pick up the regional support that went to Representative Buddy Carter, who finished in third place overall in the primary. Mr. Carter, who represents the First Congressional District, was the leading candidate in 23 counties in that region, and he received nearly 60 percent of the vote in Chatham County, the largest county in his district.
Most of those southeastern counties are small and rural, which could favor Mr. Collins, who ran stronger than Mr. Dooley across rural Georgia.
In the governor’s primary, Mr. Jones also won all of the southeastern counties, with Mr. Jackson keeping things relatively close in the more populated Chatham County, but losing by wide margins in the rest of the region. Attorney General Chris Carr, who finished fourth overall, picked up most of his support in this area, but Mr. Jackson would need more than just Mr. Carr’s voters to make the southeast competitive.
Athens
In the primary, Clarke County — home of Athens and the University of Georgia — was the only county in Mr. Collins’s district that he lost. That was a sign that the Dooley name still carries a great deal of weight in the area: Mr. Dooley’s father, Vince Dooley, famously coached the Bulldogs to a national championship in 1980.
Clarke County accounts for only a small share of the statewide vote, but Mr. Dooley did well in that region overall and could pick up Mr. Carter’s voters in the region.
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