CNN data analyst Harry Enten reported a dramatic shift in Vice President JD Vance’s chances of becoming the 2028 Republican Presidential nominee.
Prediction markets show Vance dropping from a 50% favorite to a nominal frontrunner, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio surged from 11% to 28%, creating a neck-and-neck race.
Enten attributed the shift to the Iran war, which damaged the 41-year-old Vice President’s standing while elevating Rubio.
In Vance’s home state of Ohio, his net favorability declined from plus-five to underwater status, with independents viewing him 27 points negatively. Most damaging: Vance trails among women by 26 points — the largest gender gap among Trump cabinet members in Quinnipiac polling.
Though Vance holds a 77-69 Republican approval advantage over Rubio, his walkback on “childless cat ladies” comments appears insufficient to repair damage among voters who identify as women.
“He doesn’t need to win women if he’s going to win in 2028,” Enten added, “but he can’t be this unpopular among them.”
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