The framework agreement President Trump has signed with Iran appears to contain, broadly speaking, two parts: Terms for an immediate 60-day cease-fire, and plans for negotiations in that time on a long-term peace deal.
But when it comes to what is — or might be — in each of those categories, little has been revealed so far. The text of the short-term agreement hasn’t been released yet, and the long-term one doesn’t exist yet. Here is a look at some of what we know and what we don’t know.
What will happen to Iran’s nuclear program?
This is one of two big unknowns. Both sides have indicated that the nuclear program is not addressed in the immediate framework, but will be negotiated as part of the long-term deal. But it is not clear that any agreement is feasible. Most importantly, we don’t know if Iran will give up its stockpile of highly enriched uranium that could be used to make weapons, or whether it would agree to halt such high-level enrichment — and if so, for how long. (Mr. Trump has suggested Iran could continue low-level enrichment of the kind that produces fuel for power plants.) Mr. Trump insists Iran must never have a nuclear bomb and made the issue a key point in his rationale for war; Iran insists it has never set out to make a bomb.
Will Iran get relief from Western sanctions?
This is the other big unknown, and again, it has been left to the talks on a long-term agreement. For Iran, removing the crippling economic penalties has been a vital demand. Some were lifted as part of the 2015 nuclear deal, but Mr. Trump reimposed them when he withdrew from that deal, and then imposed new sanctions.
Will the Strait of Hormuz reopen to shipping?
Yes, both countries have said they will lift their blockades, but how fast the strait reopens is unclear. Mr. Trump said maritime traffic will return to normal by Friday, when a signing ceremony is held in Geneva. But other U.S. officials said it could take weeks. Thousands of vessels have been waiting for the blockade to end; they cannot all pass at once, and the U.S. military will first try to ensure there are no mines in the waterway.
Will use of the strait be free?
Mr. Trump said there will be no tolls, but an Iranian official said his country will assess fees on passing ships, which were not charged before. Legal experts say there is no real distinction and Iran’s plan would violate international law, and it is not clear if the U.S. side would condone it.
Does the cease-fire include Lebanon?
Unclear. Israel and Hezbollah, the Iran-backed Lebanese militia, have been waging war against each other. Both Pakistan, which has acted as a mediator between Iran and the United States, and Iran say the framework includes halting hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon. But neither Israel nor Hezbollah is a party to the deal. The United States is not involved in the war in Lebanon, and Mr. Trump has berated Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel for pursuing it so aggressively, calling him “crazy.” Mr. Netanyahu made it clear on Monday that he disagreed with at least part of Mr. Trump’s agreement with Iran, calling it “his decision,” but did not elaborate. He said Israel will not withdraw its forces from Lebanon, but that doesn’t necessarily rule out observing something resembling a cease-fire.
What about Iran’s frozen assets?
Again, unclear. Iran wants to recover billions of dollars in government funds that are locked up in foreign financial institutions. Reuters has reported that the United Arab Emirates, where some of the assets are held, will release $10 billion to Iran, which the Emirati government has denied. Vice President JD Vance said on Monday that the United States has not promised any financial benefits to Iran during the 60-day cease-fire. Analysts have suggested that an Emirati transfer could be a way for Mr. Trump to privately condone such payment without publicly taking responsibility for it. For years, he has berated former President Barack Obama for returning some frozen assets to Iran in 2016.
Will the price of gasoline and other products fall?
Probably, eventually, but not right away. Just getting the traffic snarl in the Persian Gulf smoothed out will take time. Fixing the oil and gas infrastructure around the Gulf that has been bombed will take much longer.
What will happen to Iran’s missile program?
This appears to be another issue to be addressed in the longer-range talks, if at all. Israel has insisted on a definitive end to Iran’s missile program, but it has not been a focus of the Trump administration recently.
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