After days of uncertainty and tit-for-tat military strikes, the United States and Iran are nearing a deal to extend a ceasefire, officials said Friday, even as key aspects of a longer-term peace appeared in dispute.
The proposed ceasefire agreement, which was outlined by officials from the United States, Iran and mediator Pakistan on Friday, was said to be in the final stages, with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif writing on social media that the “agreed upon text of the peace deal has been reached.”
A senior Trump administration official confirmed in a call with reporters that the two sides were 80 to 85 percent of the way to reaching a deal but added that there was still some uncertainty that the Iranians would agree.
“Their system is very complicated. Most of the people that we’ve been speaking to, and most of the people who have authority within their system, want to sign this deal, but not everybody,” said the senior official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity under ground rules set by the administration.
Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, told state media that he was “hopeful” about the prospects of a deal and that Iran’s National Security Council was expected to arrive at a final decision by consensus within a few days.
Some of the terms he described, however, differed from those put forward by U.S. officials — including the future of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping chokepoint that has emerged as a key piece of Iranian economic leverage in more than three months of conflict.
U.S. and Iranian officials had publicly signaled Friday that a deal was close, with purported details of the arrangement, most notably the staged release of frozen funds to Tehran, meeting criticism from some Iran hawks.
Araghchi wrote on social media earlier in the day that a deal had “never been closer,” but he asked media outlets to not speculate about the terms of the pact, which he called the “Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding” after the venue for U.S.-Iran talks in April.
President Donald Trump, who had accused Iran of leaking false details about the proposed terms of the deal, appeared to endorse Araghchi’s message, sharing it on his own social media account.
Officials suggested that the initial deal would extend the ceasefire for 60 days. During that time, Iran would be expected to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and work with the United States to dismantle nuclear material in the country that could be used to create a weapon.
In exchange, Iran would eventually receive relief from sanctions and a U.S. blockade, as well as access to billions of dollars in frozen assets. However, Tehran would have to reach certain benchmarks that would be set through more negotiations.
The senior administration official declined to state how much money Iran could get under this arrangement.
“It’s very hard to answer specifically what could they get, because that’s very contingent on what they’re performing,” the official said.
In remarks on state television, Araghchi appeared to temper expectations, telling news outlets not to “muddy the waters” and stating that there was “no agreement in which one side has won 100 and other zero.”
But the foreign minister suggested that Tehran had won some key concessions. Iran and Oman would remain in control of the Strait of Hormuz and would charge a “service fee” to vessels crossing the waterway, according to Araghchi.
“The administration of the Strait of Hormuz will not be like it was in the past,” he said, according to quotes from the interview published by state-run media.
Araghchi also said the agreement included a pledge from the United States not to attack Iran again in the future, apparently a form of the security guarantees that Tehran has long demanded.
U.S. officials have criticized Iranian accounts of the negotiations, with the senior administration official stating Friday that Iranian officials were engaged in “domestic propaganda” to sell the deal.
But experts said that the Trump administration’s own account of the agreement left considerable room for interpretation. Most of the specifics, particularly on nuclear matters, will be worked out during a future 60-day negotiating period, said the official, who stressed the reciprocal nature of the commitments.
Though the United States has said the agreement would see nuclear material removed from Iran or destroyed, for example, it was not clear whether this provision would apply only to highly enriched uranium that could be used for nuclear weapons or to all enriched uranium in the country.
“I would envision there are going to be significant uncertainties whether all of the HEU [highly enriched uranium] is located and all the centrifuges accounted for because of the destruction” and lack of access for experts from the International Atomic Energy Agency over the past year, said Kelsey Davenport, director for nonproliferation policy at the Arms Control Association.
Other issues, like low-level nuclear enrichment for civilian purposes and restraints on Iran’s ballistic missile program, were also left uncertain.
Low-level enrichment had been allowed under the JCPOA, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action negotiated under President Barack Obama that limited Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of U.S. and international sanctions, but curbs on Iran’s ballistic missile program had been limited in that deal.
Trump withdrew from that pact and reimposed sanctions on Iran during his first administration. Two years later, Iran began dodging International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors and installing advanced centrifuges that could produce highly enriched uranium much more quickly.
While the ceasefire was said to be close, key final logistics had not been decided as of Friday afternoon. The senior administration official said that it had not yet been agreed when or where the deal would be signed. A Pakistani official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss ongoing talks, said that Sharif would probably attend the signing.
Pakistan has acted as the main mediator between the United States and Iran since the declaration of the ceasefire and the historic in-person U.S.-Iran meeting in Islamabad in April. However, Qatar’s role appears to have expanded, with a Qatari delegation visiting Tehran this week to support the ongoing talks.
If a deal is reached, it could bring to an end the months-long conflict that began on Feb. 28, when the U.S. and Israel launched devastating military strikes against Iran’s political and military leadership, including the country’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei.
The conflict has had global ramifications, spiking gas and commodity prices. The Iranian regime has struck back at the U.S. and its allies in the region, and both sides have forced the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a shipping lane in the Persian Gulf that before the conflict saw roughly 20 percent of global oil pass through it.
A fragile ceasefire agreement was reached in April, but the conflict sparked back to life in recent days after Israel carried out airstrikes on Sunday in southern Beirut, targeting the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah, prompting Iran and Israel to exchange strikes.
Iranian forces downed a U.S. helicopter in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, leading Trump to order retaliatory attacks. On Thursday, however, Trump announced on social media that he had canceled strikes planned for that day, claiming that a deal with Iran was close.
The senior administration official said Friday that the deal was “broad” and that it would include Lebanon and Israel, but added that Israel would retain the right to respond if it was threatened.
Israel’s defense minister, Israel Katz, previously wrote on social media that despite the prospect of a U.S.-Iran deal, Israel needed to maintain “the ability to act independently to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.” He added that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had instructed the country’s military to “prepare accordingly.”
Natalie Allison contributed to this report.
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