One thing that seems certain about the SpaceX IPO is that it’s going to make lots of people very, very rich. Another is that you probably won’t be one of them. At least not any time soon.
There’s extraordinary interest in Elon Musk’s rocket-and-AI company’s public debut, and for good reason. SpaceX was already the leading private space company in the world, its rockets shuttling astronauts to the International Space Station and its Starlink satellites providing internet connectivity to millions of people around the world. Its recent acquisition of xAI means it is also the first of the big three AI startups in the US to go public, with Anthropic and OpenAI following close behind. The company raised $75 billion, valuing it at $1.75 trillion, which would make it the biggest IPO ever by a sizable margin.
Like all IPOs, though, stratospheric wealth will likely be reserved for those who already hold shares of SpaceX, which means employees, big institutional asset managers, and Elon Musk. Even though so-called retail investors—individuals who don’t buy stock professionally—will have more access to SpaceX shares than is typical for an IPO, most people won’t be in a position to see serious gains .
To be absolutely clear, this isn’t investment advice, or a prediction about the long-term financial health of SpaceX or its share price. It’s simple mechanics.
“The system is unfair,” says Campbell Harvey, a professor of finance at Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business. Here’s how it works—and who it works for.
The Inside Track
Typically, the vast majority of retail investors wouldn’t be able to get in on an IPO at all. These offerings tend to be exclusive clubs, with tightly curated guest lists made up of institutional investors like mutual funds and asset managers.
The SpaceX IPO is different, though, in a few key ways. SpaceX has indicated that it wants to set aside 30 percent of its “float” (the number of shares made available for public trading) for the Average Joe, which works out to about $22.5 billion worth of shares. (Typically a company will set aside much less for retail investors in an IPO; Fidelity pegs it at 5 to 10 percent.)
Depending on your broker, you may also need a lot less money to get involved. Take Fidelity, one of the largest asset managers in the world. For a typical IPO, Fidelity requires you to have at least $100,000 (or sometimes $500,000) in household assets to participate; for SpaceX, it’s brought that minimum down to two grand.
So yes, it’s easier to get on the guest list for the club. But there are still only so many tables inside. Remember that $75 billion worth of stock SpaceX raised? Bloomberg reported Thursday that SpaceX had received $100 billion worth of orders from hopeful retail investors. And that’s before you even get to the asset managers trying to muscle in; BlackRock alone reportedly submitted a $5 billion order.
SpaceX’s bankers ultimately decide who gets the right to buy stock at the IPO price of $135 a share, and how much of it. The odds that you’ll make it past the velvet rope—even with the loosened standards—are vanishingly small. And even if you do, the number of shares that you get will likely be a pittance. Tell your brokerage firm that you want 10, and you might be lucky to get one or two. That’s not exactly setting you up for generational wealth.
“The average investor gets the leftovers,” says Harvey. He argues that even the 30 percent figure is misleading, because SpaceX is only selling 4 percent of its available shares, meaning retail investors will wind up owning a little over 1 percent of the company after the IPO. “It’s a few crumbs.”
It gets worse. SpaceX’s IPO is unusual not only because of the share allocation, but because it’s such a mature company. It’s been around since 2002. It has raised money many times since then, giving chunks of the firm to big banks and other investors. There may still be plenty of upside, especially if you believe Musk’s promises about data centers in space. But buying in now doesn’t necessarily put you at a major advantage.
“An IPO share price often means getting in at the ground floor. I hesitate to say that for this company,” says Matthew Kennedy, senior IPO market analyst for Renaissance Capital, a pre-IPO research and investment firm. “A lot of the value has already been baked in and granted for existing shareholders.”
So: You’re unlikely to get in on the SpaceX IPO. Even if you do, you’re probably only getting a handful of shares. And those shares are already priced based on SpaceX being worth $1.75 trillion, which Kennedy says “looks a little ridiculous at first glance.” (He acknowledges that there may be some upside left, depending on how long your investment horizon is and your appetite for the inevitable ups and downs of a post-IPO stock.)
And for most people, that’s the best-case scenario.
Off the Street
Most people, of course, won’t get a slice of the IPO itself. They’ll be buying shares of SpaceX on the open market, which, well, good luck.
You can buy shares at $135 if you’re in on the IPO, but you miss out on any pricing advantage the moment it hits the Nasdaq. “For those buying in the market, the price is likely to be higher than the offer price,” says Jay Ritter, director of the IPO Initiative at the University of Florida. (Ritter is also “widely known as ‘Mr. IPO,’” which isn’t essential information but kind of fun.)
“By the time a retail investor has a chance to buy the stock, it’s often fully priced,” says Harvey. “If you’re looking for explosive upside you need to access the stock when it is not public.”
Even if the stock does “pop” in those first hours of trading, you’re unlikely to be able to reap the benefit. “I don’t want to discourage anyone from pursuing their dreams here, but just know that if you’re trying to make a quick buck on the SpaceX IPO on day one, millions of other traders will be trying to do the same,” says Kennedy. “You might want to consider this a long-term investment.”
The post You Probably Won’t Get Rich Off the SpaceX IPO appeared first on Wired.
