Social Security trust funds could run out within years, according to a new annual report by Social Security’s trustees—and President Donald Trump’s policies might be accelerating the problem.
The report, released Tuesday, found that the Social Security Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund is expected to run dry by late 2032. The fund supports monthly payments to senior citizens and their dependents, as well as to survivors of deceased workers. Medicare Part A, or its Hospital Insurance trust fund, is also expected to be depleted within years. Social Security and Medicare Part A are funded through dedicated payroll taxes and taxes on benefits. That means the programs will not run out of money entirely, but monthly benefits would have to be paid from ongoing revenue once the trust funds are depleted.
If the funds run dry, that could mean smaller monthly Social Security cheques to around tens of millions of Americans. At the end of last year, Social Security provided benefits to around 62 million retirees and survivors, as well as eight million people with disabilities, according to the report, while over 69 million people were enrolled in Medicare.
Social Security and Medicare have long faced financial strain driven by the country’s aging population, but the report suggests that the trust funds are likely to be exhausted sooner than previously forecast. The trustees pointed to Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which was signed into law on July 4 last year, as one reason for the projected accelerated depletion. The law made permanent lower federal income tax rates, originally created by Trump’s 2017 tax reforms, and created a new enhanced deduction for senior citizens. The result is less revenue for Social Security and Medicare trust funds.
According to an estimate from the Social Security Administration’s actuaries, the law will increase net program costs by nearly $170 billion over the next decade due to lost revenue.
“This is the first Social Security trustees report that begins to take Donald Trump’s second term policies into account: A tax bill that largely benefited the wealthy, economy-wrecking tariffs, a needless war with Iran, and hostility to immigrants,” Nancy Altman, the president of political advocacy group Social Security Works, said in a statement. “All of these have reduced the amount of money going into Social Security, weakening the system’s finances.”
The U.S.’s falling fertility rate and lower number of immigrants are also causing the funds to deplete at a faster rate, according to the report. The Trump Administration has pursued a mass deportation campaign, as well as taken steps to stymie immigrants from entering the country and restrict them from participating in financial and public services. Many immigrants, including those who are undocumented, pay taxes even if they are not eligible to collect benefits, advocates have said; fewer immigrants also reduces the future workforce, thus shrinking the payroll tax base.
Advocates have argued the report’s projections could even be conservative. The report lowered the projected levels of temporary or unlawful immigrants but kept its assumptions for lawful immigration broadly in line with levels during the Biden Administration, though critics have argued that lawful immigration levels to the U.S. may also fall as a result of the Trump Administration’s anti-immigration policies.
When will Social Security funds run out?
Together, Social Security retirement and disability trust funds are projected to run out in 2034, which is the same forecast as last year. After that, just 83% of benefits will be covered by payroll tax revenue and other income sources. By law, however, the two trust funds are separate. The Disability Insurance Trust Fund alone is projected to cover full benefits through at least 2100.
Without the retirement trust fund, only 78% of benefits will continue to be covered by payroll tax revenue and other income sources, which would mean automatic cuts to benefits, according to the report.
Medicare is also projected to run out of funds sooner than previously anticipated. Medicare Part A will be able to cover scheduled benefits until the second quarter of 2033, according to the report, which is a quarter earlier than last year’s forecast. Past that point, Medicare will be able to cover 89% of scheduled Part A benefits. Those benefits typically cover inpatient hospital care, hospice care, limited skilled nursing facility care, and some home health services.
Medicare Part B, which covers doctor visits, outpatient and preventive care, medical equipment, and mental health services, and Part D, which covers prescription medications and certain vaccines, are not affected as they are funded by beneficiary premiums and federal government contributions.
Can this be prevented?
Advocates for expanding Social Security have called for Congress to direct more money into the program. Doing so could involve raising revenue for the program, such as by increasing the payroll tax rate, raising the wage cap, or applying Social Security taxes to forms of compensation that are currently exempt. Lawmakers could also reduce future benefits, such as by raising the full retirement age or slowing the annual growth of benefits, especially for higher income retirees.
Congress has made some of these changes in the past. In 1983, lawmakers enacted a bipartisan package that increased payroll taxes, gradually raised the retirement age, and subjected a portion of Social Security benefits to income taxes, in order to extend the program’s solvency.
Congress could also reallocate funds by shifting a larger share of payroll tax revenue to trust funds facing shortfalls. Lawmakers have done this at least 11 times since 1968, according to the Social Security Administration. Most recently, in 2015, lawmakers voted to reallocate a portion of the payroll tax from the retirement trust fund to the disability trust fund. But a reallocation would not solve Social Security’s overall financing problem.
Advocates have also urged lawmakers to oppose changes that could weaken Social Security after Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson signaled on Monday that Republicans plan to pursue changes to public healthcare and Social Security programs next year.
The programs “have to be adjusted and fixed. We have a plan to do that,” Johnson said on a radio program Monday.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has also suggested that the Administration’s “Trump accounts”—tax-deferred investment accounts—could act as a “backdoor for privatizing Social Security.” (Bessent later clarified in a post on X that the accounts “will supplement the sanctity of Social Security’s guaranteed payments,” and not replace them.)
“Congress has only two options to address the projected shortfall: Bring more money into Social Security, or cut benefits,” Altman, the advocate, said. “Any politician who refuses to raise revenue, including by making the wealthy pay their fair share into Social Security, is telling us that they support benefit cuts.”
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