Democrats are setting the stage to pursue redistricting efforts in as many as 13 states before 2028, redrawing congressional lines to secure potentially dozens of additional House seats, according to an internal strategy memo obtained exclusively by TIME. To move forward on that plan, party strategists have a list of fewer than two dozen state legislative seats they need to flip in this year’s midterm elections.
“Our ability to go on offense in this year’s environment is not only important for power in 2026, but will have an enormous impact on the power we can build through the end of the decade and wield in the post-2030 redistricting process,” wrote Heather Williams, the president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, the Democrats’ official arm that works on state legislative races.
Democrats are still smarting from the initial round of the redistricting wars that kicked off last year. Republicans appear to have done better at gerrymandering maps in states like Texas and Florida to give them an edge in this year’s midterm elections. The Supreme Court’s gutting of the Voting Rights Act in April set that fight into overdrive.
So Democrats plan to be more aggressive on the redistricting front ahead of 2028, and taking advantage of a favorable election environment in 2026 is key. Williams tells me her committee sees hundreds of statehouse seats as flippable this fall. Of those, just 19 targeted races would deliver Democrats a trifecta—the governorship and majorities in the state House and Senate—in four states: Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin. That would open the doors to Democratic-led redistricting should those state houses choose to go down that path.
In other words, fewer than two dozen small-time races for seats in Madison, Wis., Lansing, Mich., and the like stand to sway control of the U.S. House in 2028 and beyond, according to DLCC’s analysis. It’s a plan that, if executed well, could make life very difficult for as many as 51 Republican House members, whose districts could be carved up to give Democrats’ nakedly partisan advantages.
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Williams tells me it is too early to predict what Democratic state legislators would choose to do with their potential majorities but acknowledged that an earlier sense of restraint was gone. “It was evident the minute that the President called on Republicans and the Texas statehouse to gerrymander,” she said. “We’re going to understand what that battlefield looks like in 2027 and, before that, we’re going to build the power necessary to keep those options on the table.”
Along with pursuing new trifectas in four states, Democrats also see changes to make gains in New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. Plus they want to strengthen their existing majorities in Nevada, Oregon, and Washington state.
Beyond that, Democrats are eyeing four more blue states—Colorado, Maryland, New York, and New Jersey—where they may try to amend the state constitution or push a voter referendum to allow them to redraw maps in their favor before the next presidential election cycle.
To be sure, Republicans still hold the upper hand in state legislatures. Republicans have about 55% of all state legislative seats in the country and control 57 chambers to Democrats’ 39. But a seat here and there can make a big difference. The Minnesota House is split dead-even. And in Pennsylvania, a three-seat swing in the state Senate could kick off a series of events that ultimately spells trouble for the state’s 10 GOP House members.
So with an eye at going tit-for-tat against Republicans’ gerrymandering spree, Democrats see the midterms as just the next battle in the never-ending redistricting wars. “Redistricting is no longer a once-in-a-decade conversation,” Williams wrote to her donors in the memo going out Monday. “If you care about federal power, state legislatures matter now and they matter in every single election.”
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The post Exclusive: Democrats Set in Motion Plan to Redraw Congressional Maps in as Many as 13 States appeared first on TIME.
