Every few years, the internet dusts off the baby boom theory—a heat wave hits, people get optimistic, and someone starts connecting dots between rising temperatures and rising birth rates. The logic, as it happens, is a little more complicated than that.
The World Meteorological Organization has warned there’s an 80 percent likelihood of an El Niño event between June and August 2026, and experts are already weighing in on what that means for birth rates.
El Niño refers to the warming of ocean surfaces above average sea temperatures, which drives hotter conditions worldwide. Given that global birth rates have been in steady decline for years, the question of whether a heat event could scooch them back up is a reasonable one. The answer, according to doctors and relationship experts who spoke with Tyla, is almost certainly no.
The case for a baby boom does have some logic to it. Relationship expert Gemma Logan told Tyla that mild, pleasant weather does tend to boost mood, encourage social connection, and increase intimacy. “Longer daylight hours can boost mood and increase feelings of well-being, which often translates into stronger relationship satisfaction and greater intimacy,” she said.
Warm Weather Is Good for Baby Making, but Not Too Warm
A MailOnline report found that more babies are born nine months after the UK’s May bank holiday than at any other point in the year, which supports the idea that good weather and good moods have predictable downstream effects.
The relationship between heat and horniness only goes so far. Logan warned that prolonged exposure to high temperatures can temporarily affect sperm quality and that, past a certain point, the conditions stop working in anyone’s favor.
Dr. Lucy Hooper, a private GP and co-founder of Coyne Medical, went straight to the biology. “Sperm production is highly temperature-sensitive, and research has consistently shown that hot weather suppresses sperm quality, reducing count, concentration, and normal morphology,” she said. “So while a summer holiday might set a romantic scene, the biology is not necessarily cooperating.”
Hooper was equally unsentimental about the bigger picture. Global fertility rates are already projected to fall to around 1.8 by 2050. “Short-term fluctuations happen, but no seasonal or climatic shift is going to reverse that trajectory,” she said.
Warm weather makes people happy, and happy people have more sex. Too bad extreme heat, like with Super El Niño, kills the mood — and the sperm count.
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