It looks like this year’s Tony Awards are going for gingham.
My prediction, based on emails and phone calls with about 175 of the roughly 850 Tony voters, is that the coveted prize for best new musical will go to “Schmigadoon!,” a musical about musicals, which is a genre that industry insiders often love. The comedy, based on an Apple TV+ series, tells the story of a couple whose rocky relationship gets a jolt after they are trapped in an old-timey hamlet whose residents, clad in period costumes, have a tendency to burst into song (and dance).
If there’s a last-minute upset — which could always happen — the beneficiary would be “The Lost Boys,” a spectacle-rich pop rock musical based on the 1980s movie about a family trying to fend off a gang of bloodthirsty vampires.
It was a grim season for new musicals on Broadway: just six. Two of those shows quickly flamed out, and none of the survivors is going gangbusters, at least not yet.
That makes this year’s competition for the Tony Award for best musical all the more important, because that prize has generally provided a box office boost for the winning show.
The awards ceremony is on Sunday night at Radio City Music Hall, and will be broadcast on CBS, starting at 8 p.m. Eastern. Here’s a look at what I expect to happen in eight major categories, based on what voters have been telling me in conversations this week.
‘Liberation’ is highly likely to win best play.
The last time a drama by a woman won the Tony Award for best play was in 2009 (that was “God of Carnage,” by Yasmina Reza of France) and the last time an American woman won that prize was even farther back, in 1989 (that was “The Heidi Chronicles,” by Wendy Wasserstein).
That history is likely to change this weekend. By a significant margin, Tony voters say they are supporting “Liberation,” by Bess Wohl, as best play. The show, set primarily in the 1970s, is about second-wave feminism, but it’s not about the movement’s well-known leaders — it’s set on a basketball court at an Ohio recreation center, and imagines the movement’s effects on a group of women in a consciousness raising group.
A victory by “Liberation” would be one of the surprises of the season, which began with a widely held assumption that the best play prize would go to a British drama, “Giant,” about the antisemitism of the children’s author Roald Dahl. That play arrived with amazing word-of-mouth from England, features a career-capping performance by John Lithgow, and has been profitable, while “Liberation” lost money. (Broadway usually loves a success story.)
But “Giant,” written by Mark Rosenblatt, seems to have suffered from expectations that were too high, while “Liberation” has garnered momentum since closing in February, winning the Pulitzer Prize for drama last month and demonstrating its continued appeal by scheduling productions at a number of American regional theaters as well as in London.
The musical revival race is a nail-biter.
The two leading contenders for best musical revival could hardly be more different: “Ragtime” is a beautifully sung production of an epic story about American history; “Cats: The Jellicle Ball” is an exuberantly danced reimagining of a story about cats.
The shows have divided Tony voters, relatively evenly.
“Cats,” directed by Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch, may have a slight advantage, because many voters prefer a transformational production (like “The Jellicle Ball,” which relocates the show’s action to a Ballroom dance scene full of human beings from a junkyard populated by cats) to a reverential one (like “Ragtime,” which is expertly staged and performed but more faithful to its precursor) when assessing revivals. But “Ragtime,” directed by Lear deBessonet, has been a hot ticket for Lincoln Center Theater, which is producing the current revival, and that, of course, is a different kind of transformation. (The show’s original production was not financially successful.)
Stay tuned.
‘Salesman’ has an edge, but not a lock.
Two much-praised play revivals, “Death of a Salesman” and “Oedipus,” have broken from the pack in a strong season for that category. “Salesman,” directed by Joe Mantello and starring Nathan Lane and Laurie Metcalf, is ahead among the voters I spoke with, but its lead is not insurmountable, and “Oedipus,” adapted and directed by Robert Icke and starring Lesley Manville and Mark Strong, could theoretically eke out a win.
The race is significant because a lead producer of “Salesman” is Scott Rudin, who had stepped away from Broadway amid accusations of bullying behavior. Rudin returned to producing this season, and a “Salesman” win would be a milestone in his journey back.
Two ‘Ragtime’ stars, Joshua Henry and Caissie Levy, are sure to win trophies.
The races for best leading actor and actress in a musical appear to be all sewn up, and both are going to be won by performers from “Ragtime.”
Joshua Henry, playing an aggrieved pianist named Coalhouse Walker Jr., has wowed audiences with his booming baritone; he has overwhelming support from a supermajority of voters.
Caissie Levy, playing a suburban matron known only as Mother, has impressed voters with her depiction of her character’s gradual assertion of independence and ideas. Her support, although not quite as stratospheric, also appears to be insurmountably strong.
Lesley Manville and John Lithgow are heavy favorites.
The play categories are slightly harder to forecast — the voters are spreading their affection out among multiple performers, and none seem to have majority support. But among the nominated play actresses, Manville, who made her Broadway debut playing Jocasta in “Oedipus,” appears to have a healthy lead, with Susannah Flood of “Liberation” as the runner-up. Among the nominated actors, Lithgow of “Giant” looks to be ahead of his main rival, Lane of “Death of a Salesman,” but there could be an upset in that category.
And about those musicals …
All of the nominated musicals need a good night on Sunday — preferably by winning awards, but also by staging a performance on the telecast that persuades viewers to buy tickets.
Supporters of “Schmigadoon!” say they appreciate its heart and its humor; partisans of “The Lost Boys” say they have been wowed by the stagecraft.
The two other nominated shows are “Titaníque,” a spoofy romp that riffs on “Titanic” and Celine Dion, and “Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York),” a charming rom-com about a British man and an American woman invited to the same wedding. Both have their supporters, but not enough to win a trophy.
Michael Paulson is the theater reporter for The Times.
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