In April, when the United States indicted Rubén Rocha Moya, the sitting governor of the Mexican state of Sinaloa, it crossed a line both countries had tiptoed around for decades. Washington was no longer asking Mexico to help arrest a fugitive, extradite a drug trafficker or take down a cartel boss. It was demanding that the Mexican government take on the political protection rackets that have allowed cartel power in Mexico to thrive.
U.S. prosecutors have accused Mr. Rocha and other officials in Sinaloa of facilitating drug trafficking into the United States and protecting cartel members in exchange for bribes and political support. The indictment also alleges that Mr. Rocha — a longtime ally of the former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador and a prominent member of Mexico’s ruling party, Morena — won the governorship in 2021 with the help of the Sinaloa Cartel, one of Mexico’s most notorious criminal organizations. Mr. Rocha has denied the charges, but the fallout extends far beyond him. His indictment has become a test of sovereignty, party loyalty and political power in Mexico — and a new source of tension between Washington and Mexico City.
Mr. Rocha’s case hints at the possibility that cartel power may have contaminated the ranks of Mexico’s governing party, leaving President Claudia Sheinbaum in an impossible dilemma. Moving against Mr. Rocha, by allowing an extradition process to move forward or withdrawing political support from him, would expose rifts inside her coalition and invite accusations that she is yielding to Washington. Refusing to act, especially if the evidence proves strong, would deepen doubts in the United States about her willingness to go after cartel corruption within her own ranks.
But there is a way for Ms. Sheinbaum to use this fraught moment to her advantage: by turning Washington’s coercive demands into an opportunity to finally clean house within her party and beyond.
Narcopolitics in Mexico long predate Ms. Sheinbaum’s administration. When Mexico transitioned to democracy in 2000 after seven decades of one-party rule, it weakened the old mechanisms of political control that had once contained organized crime. Power fragmented, and cartels found new ways to buy protection, finance political campaigns and capture local authorities. When the government began a militarized crackdown on drug cartels in 2006, it went after these groups. But it did not dismantle the political-criminal arrangements that allowed them to operate — and hundreds of thousands of people were killed or disappeared in the conflict.
Morena, founded by Mr. López Obrador and now led by Ms. Sheinbaum, rose to power in the late 2010s, promising a moral and political break with that violent past. Mr. López Obrador’s alternative — summarized in his now infamous slogan “hugs, not bullets” — sought to avoid direct confrontation with criminal organizations. In theory, the strategy was supposed to reduce violence by boosting social spending programs and avoiding bloody clashes with cartels. In practice, it gave these groups more room to expand their territorial control, social authority and political influence. Now, with the Trump administration escalating threats of tariffs, criminal prosecutions and even unilateral action on Mexican soil to press Mexico for results against organized crime, parts of Morena stand accused of the kind of narco-corruption that the movement promised to eradicate.
So far, Ms. Sheinbaum has managed to walk a narrow line: cooperating enough to keep U.S. hard-liners at bay, resisting enough to hold her coalition together and framing Washington’s most politically damaging accusations as foreign interference. It is not a tenable position. Mexico cannot defy its northern neighbor indefinitely; their economies are too deeply integrated, especially as both countries enter the 2026 review of the trade agreement between the United States, Mexico and Canada. But yielding indefinitely to U.S. demands would hollow out the Mexican state and deal a potentially fatal blow to Ms. Sheinbaum’s domestic credibility. No Mexican president can accept an American attempt to discipline the country’s political class without paying a heavy price.
Publicly, Ms. Sheinbaum has cast the U.S. case against Mr. Rocha as foreign meddling and insisted that Washington has yet to provide the evidence Mexican authorities would need to act against him. Privately, she has warned Morena governors and lawmakers that officials tied to corruption should resign — an indication that she understands the danger the case poses to her party. (Mr. Rocha has temporarily stepped down from his post.)
In Washington, the Mexican leader’s statements have begun to sound less like a defense of sovereignty and more like evasion of responsibility. A U.S.-Mexico relationship that had, until recently, seemed surprisingly functional is now under growing strain, as the Trump administration expands its anti-cartel campaign from criminal groups to the politicians accused of protecting them.
Ms. Sheinbaum’s options aren’t easy. She could dig in, denounce Washington’s pressure and extend cover to political allies until and unless enough incontrovertible evidence surfaces to force her hand. That might shore up Ms. Sheinbaum’s coalition, but it would sharpen Washington’s suspicion and perhaps invite even more serious U.S. action, like broader financial sanctions, unilateral operations on Mexican territory or formal accusations targeting figures far above Mr. Rocha in the political hierarchy.
Or she can keep giving Washington what it wants: more arrests, more extraditions, more cooperation and ever-higher-profile political targets. That might buy time with Mr. Trump, but it would let the United States define the terms of Mexico’s fight against cartel power. Ms. Sheinbaum would look less like a president asserting control than a leader enforcing accountability on Washington’s terms.
Ms. Sheinbaum can still take charge of this moment. She could use U.S. pressure as leverage to start serious anticorruption investigations, remove compromised officials, disrupt local protection networks and force her party to accept changes it might otherwise resist. She could work to reform Mexico’s security and justice apparatus, rebuild cooperation with Washington from a position of strength and reassert her government’s role as a domestic enforcer of the rule of law. Not because the United States demands it, but because Mexicans need it.
For too long, Mexico has postponed the struggle against cartel power, outsourced it to Washington or confined it to a hunt for top kingpins. It can and should reclaim that fight, even if doing so means Ms. Sheinbaum must confront parts of her own party. If she fails, Mexico may face something worse than an externally imposed reckoning: no reckoning at all.
Carlos Bravo Regidor is a Mexican political analyst and the author of “Mar de dudas: Conversaciones para navegar el desconcierto.”
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