California voters will make a slate of important decisions on Tuesday about which Democrats they want to pit against Republican incumbents in the fall in key contests that could determine control of the House of Representatives.
They will also take their first steps toward determining who will represent districts currently held by veteran Democratic lawmakers, including former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, as the party contends with a crop of aging or retiring House members and a corresponding youth movement seeking generational change.
California is home to 52 congressional districts — by far the most in the country — and a host of competitive contests from Sacramento to San Diego. Complicating matters, the state holds all-party primaries in which Republicans and Democrats compete on the same ballot and the top two finishers move on to the general election in November.
Here’s what to watch on election night.
Can Republicans survive Proposition 50?
Last fall, California voters passed Proposition 50, a ballot measure pushed by Gov. Gavin Newsom that redrew the state’s congressional map and made five Republican-held districts easier for Democrats to flip.
Some of the first dominoes from that decision may fall on Tuesday. In Southern California’s 40th District, Representatives Young Kim and Ken Calvert, both Republicans, are running against each other for the same seat after Mr. Calvert’s district was torn up by Proposition 50.
The 40th District is one of the few remaining Republican strongholds in California, but one incumbent may not make it to November. If Ms. Kim or Mr. Calvert split enough of the G.O.P. vote, and a Democratic candidate consolidates the rest of the field, an incumbent could be locked out of the top two.
In the Sacramento area, Representative Kevin Kiley faces similarly dire stakes. Mr. Kiley, a former Republican and staunch Trump ally who recently became an independent, is running in the Sixth Congressional District, which is expected to shift toward Democrats in the fall.
Mr. Kiley may snag a spot on the fall ballot on Tuesday, in part because a full slate of Democratic candidates could divide that party’s vote. But even without the Republican label by his name, he would face a steep challenge in the fall to overcome the district’s new partisan tilt. The top Democratic contenders include Dr. Richard Pan, a former state lawmaker, Lauren Babb Tomlinson, a Planned Parenthood executive, and Thien Ho, the Sacramento County district attorney.
What should the Democratic brand be in November?
In several other districts where Republicans were imperiled by Proposition 50, primaries have featured contentious battles between Democrats vying to replace them.
In the Central Valley, Representative David Valadao, a Republican, is likely to face one of two Democrats in the 22nd District: Dr. Jasmeet Bains, a moderate, or Randy Villegas, a progressive backed by Senator Bernie Sanders. The swing district is a crucial pickup opportunity for Democrats.
In an inland San Diego district, Representative Darrell Issa, a Republican, elected to retire rather than face a challenging re-election bid. Jim Desmond, a county supervisor, has consolidated Republican support, and is likely to face either Marni von Wilpert, a San Diego city councilwoman, or Ammar Campa-Najjar, a former candidate for the district, on the fall ballot.
Ms. von Wilpert and Mr. Campa-Najjar have endured a bitter primary battle in which she has accused him of homophobia and he has accused her of racism. He has also faced questions about his shifting stance on gun control and how much his campaign has been boosted by his girlfriend, Representative Sara Jacobs, one of the wealthiest members of Congress.
A lower profile race will play out in the rural and northern First District, which Representative Doug LaMalfa, a Republican, represented for years until his death in January. As a result, two elections will appear on the ballot for some voters on Tuesday: a special election to fill the remainder of Mr. LaMalfa’s term in the existing district, and a regular election for a full two-year term in the new district created by Proposition 50. A Republican, Assemblyman James Gallagher, is expected to prevail in the special election, but the new map should favor the Democratic candidates: Mike McGuire, a leader in the State Senate, and Audrey Denney, an educator from outside the party establishment.
In both of those contests, the top two vote-getters will advance to a second round of voting — with one exception in the special election. In a quirk of California election law, if a candidate wins more than 50 percent of the vote in that race, they will be declared the winner and there will be no runoff on Aug. 4.
Who will emerge from primaries in seats held by veteran Democrats?
The youth movement has come for California. A host of longtime senior incumbents face primary challenges, but the most serious appear to be to Representative Brad Sherman, 71, in Los Angeles, and Representative Doris Matsui, 81, in Sacramento.
Both representatives are expected to win a top-two spot in their respective primaries. So the bigger question on Tuesday is whether their intraparty challengers will survive and force them into competitive November battles in their safe Democratic districts.
In a high-profile San Francisco contest, the incumbent, Ms. Pelosi, is retiring, shifting attention to which Democrat will emerge to replace her. State Senator Scott Wiener has led in polls, with two progressives, Connie Chan and Saikat Chakrabarti, duking it out for second place.
Mr. Chakrabarti is a wealthy former tech executive who has self-funded his campaign, but Ms. Chan received Ms. Pelosi’s endorsement, and Mr. Chakrabarti has been dogged by questions about why his former boss, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, has not endorsed him.
Kellen Browning is a Times political reporter based in San Francisco.
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