Republicans are growing increasingly “uncomfortable” as a confluence of factors have “scrambled the political math in typically red Texas,” Axios reported Sunday, factors that could potentially flip a seat that has been held by a Republican since 1994.
Among the strongest factors is Texas’ demographic shift, with more than 2.5 million Americans having moved to the Lone Star State since 2020.
Texas’ new residents, political science professor Brandon Rottinghaus told Axios, are also “less tied to Texas’ long-standing political patterns,” the outlet reported, giving Democrats a greater chance at flipping the U.S. Senate seat currently held by Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), who was defeated in the GOP primary last week by the state’s attorney general Ken Paxton.
Political science Professor Mark P. Jones supported Rottinghaus’ theory as well, telling Axios that Texas’ new residents are typically either “economic migrants” or “political refugees” – or both.
Another major concern for Republicans is Texas’ Hispanic population, now the state’s largest demographic group. Hispanic voters were a significant factor in President Donald Trump’s 2024 election victory, but recent polls have suggested that Hispanic voters were abandoning Trump in droves, a dynamic that could bode poorly for the Trump-endorsed Paxton in November.
Trump won 55% of Hispanic Texas voters in 2024 according to exit polls, but as of last week, the president’s disapproval among the group has soared to 67%.
“Paxton carries years of legal and ethical baggage, but [Democratic Senate nominee James] Talarico also has vulnerabilities in a state that still leans conservative, including past comments on religion and his progressive profile Republicans will target,” wrote Axios’ Russell Contreras.
“Texas isn’t suddenly blue. But it is bigger, newer and less predictable – and that’s enough to make Paxton’s Senate race uncomfortable for Republicans.”
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