Data expert now sees no path to GOP holding House in midterms: ‘It has never happened’

President Donald Trump’s popularity has plummeted, and CNN’s Harry Enten warned that he will drag down the Republican Party with him if things don’t turn around soon.

Multiple polls have found the president is plunging in his favorability less than a year into his second term, and the network’s chief data analyst put those numbers into perspective Monday morning for “CNN News Central.”

“It’s a disaster if it holds towards the midterm elections, and I should note, of course, it’s not alone,” Enten said. “I mean, just take a look here. This is Gallup, this is the longest–running poll. Gallup has been conducting polls since my father was a kid, and my father was born in 1927 – had me in the ’60s. Look at this: In January, Donald Trump’s approval rating not too bad, not too great. It was at minus-one point, right within the margin of error [of] breaking even. But look at this now: minus-24 points – way, way down. We’re talking about a drop of over 20 points in the wrong direction for the president of the United States, minus-24 points. That’s a 23-point move in the incorrect direction if you’re the president.”

“Of course, what’s so important here is it matches the trend that we’ve seen with other polls,” he added. “That is Donald Trump hitting his low for the second term. I was doing the count last night. I think we’re up to 10 polls in the last 40 days, 10 different pollsters who have said that Trump is at the lowest point he is in his second term.”

The only president with worse approval ratings at this point in their second term was Richard Nixon, who resigned in disgrace less than a year later during the Watergate scandal.

“He was at minus-36 points, Trump at minus-24 points,” Enten said. “That beats or is worse, I should say, beats in the wrong direction. George W. Bush minus-19 points. His Republican Party, of course, suffered major losses in the 2006 midterm elections. Dwight Eisenhower plus-31 points, Donald Trump has never smelt that at all. I had to go into the archives to dig up that photo, and Ronald Reagan at plus-41 points, but again, it also is worse than Harry S. Truman. It’s worse than Lyndon Baines Johnson. It’s worse than Barack Obama, it’s worse than Bill Clinton.”

“Anywhere you look, this is the second-worst for a president of either party at this point in their second term, dating all the way back since the 1940s,” Enten added.

The midterm elections are just under a year away, but Enten said there’s a specific threshold Trump must meet to prevent the GOP from getting wiped out of their congressional majorities.

“I decided to go back and look at this point in a second term, what happened?” he said. “What was the trendline heading into the midterm elections? Were there any presidents who saw their net approval ratings rise by more than five points? Well, guess what, you go all the way back since Harry S. Truman, zero out of eight times that the president’s net approval rating rose by over five points, and, of course, Donald Trump right now in Gallup, minus-24 points, he’s in the minus-teens according to the average.”

“If he does not see a rise of more than five points, see you later, that Republican majority,” Enten added. “It has never happened. Of course, we live in such a weird time in politics. We live in a weird time, but he’s going to have to break history.”