Former state Atty. Gen. Xavier Becerra commands a growing lead in Tuesday’s gubernatorial primary, with billionaire Tom Steyer and conservative commentator Steve Hilton trailing closely behind, according to a closely watched poll.
Released Saturday, the final Emerson College Polling California survey before the primary shows Becerra, a Democrat, ahead with 28%, followed by Steyer, also a Democrat, at 22%, and Hilton, a Republican, at 21%.
Republican Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco received 12%, while Democrats Katie Porter, a former Orange County congresswoman, and Matt Mahan, the mayor of San José, each earned 5%.
Becerra’s support grew among key constituent groups, and he now carries 44% of Democrats, 36% of Hispanics and 36% of women.
Hilton, on the other hand, has consolidated a majority of the Republican vote with 59% to Bianco’s 29%.
Steyer is favored among those under 30 with 36% and white voters at 25%.
If no candidate wins a majority of the vote in California’s open primary, the top two, regardless of party affiliation, will progress to the general election in November.
“If Chad Bianco’s support erodes by Election Day, Hilton is positioned to benefit,” wrote Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “Steyer’s path to the runoff depends on mobilizing younger voters while limiting further gains by Becerra, whose growing coalition could siphon support from Steyer.”
It is unlikely that a majority of those polled will change their minds, the survey found, with 3 in 4 saying they will definitely vote for the candidate they named in the polling. The remaining quarter say they could still flip.
Four percent of those polled were wholly undecided. When asked who they may support, Becerra earned 28%, with Hilton and Steyer each receiving 23%.
The survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted May 27-28.
Becerra’s support increased by 9 percentage points in a little more than two weeks when compared with the May 9-10 Emerson results. Steyer and Hilton saw increases of 5 and 4 percentage points, respectively. Bianco earned a 1 percentage point increase, while Mahan and Porter lost 3 and 5 percentage points, respectively.
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