Ken Paxton’s primary victory over Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) is sending shockwaves through Republican donor circles, with party strategists warning the Texas Senate race could become a financial nightmare that bleeds resources from competitive battlegrounds across the country.
Nine GOP strategists and donors told Politico they fear the general election could force the party to spend up to $150 million defending a state Republicans never expected to truly contest — and one donor didn’t mince words, comparing the final stretch of the Texas runoff, after President Donald Trump issued a last-minute Paxton endorsement, to a “horror movie.”
“It means that $100 million will have to go to bail out the Texas seat instead of helping win seats in Maine, Michigan, Ohio, North Carolina and elsewhere,” the anonymous donor told Politico. “[It] will go down as one of the worst self-inflicted political wounds of all-time.”
Cornyn, a former chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, was expected to largely fund his own general election campaign through a deep donor network. Paxton, by contrast, had just $2.3 million in the bank heading into the final stretch of the primary — leaving Republicans scrambling to identify who will foot the bill.
Many expect Trump and his $350 million MAGA Inc. war chest to step in, though the organization declined to reveal its strategy.
“[Democratic state Rep. James]Talarico’s going to raise all sorts of cash,” a Senate GOP strategist told Politico. “There’s a very clear view that Trump took out one of the largest, most successful fundraisers in Senate history, and it’s a huge hole to fill. So the expectation is that Trump will fill that hole. He’s a prolific fundraiser and has a huge war chest.”
Making matters worse, Paxton faces a formidable opponent in Talarico, a prolific fundraiser who hauled in $600,000 within two hours of Paxton’s victory — the strongest fundraising stretch of his entire campaign. Analysts project total spending in the race could surpass $550 million, dwarfing the $210 million spent in the 2024 Texas Senate race.
With Trump’s approval ratings underwater, rising gas prices, and an unpopular war in Iran, Republicans can ill afford to play defense in Texas.
“Texas is a complex place. The question is, can you get a deep number of MAGA voters… and then get Cornyn establishment voters to convert to [Paxton]?” said another GOP donor. “That’s going to be difficult, and so you’re gonna have to spend a lot of money.”
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