Since President Trump announced a cease-fire with Iran in April, he has sought to force Tehran to accept his terms for a peace deal with a mixture of threats and limited military operations.
But more than a month later, the contours of a deal emerging this week to end the war reflected how Mr. Trump’s pressure campaign does not appear to have decisively shifted Iran’s stance on its nuclear program.
The impending deal could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the critical waterway for oil and gas, which Iran has blockaded since the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran began the war in late February. But it may delay big decisions on other thorny issues until later.
The Strait of Hormuz was already supposed to be open at this point. Free passage had been Mr. Trump’s condition for pausing the war in April.
U.S. officials hoped that if ships again flowed freely, surging gas prices would fall, domestic rancor over the war would calm down and Iran would have less leverage in the talks.
But Iranian forces have maintained their grip on the strait, and whatever the United States tried did not loosen it.
On April 13, the U.S. military began a naval blockade of Iranian ports, which is still in force. American troops have redirected at least 100 ships as part of the cordon on Iran’s cities, the military said this week.
The following month, Mr. Trump announced what he called “Project Freedom.” The idea was for U.S. forces to protect ships trapped by the monthslong Iranian blockade to allow them to safely exit the strait. Two vessels managed to get out under the initiative.
Just a day later, Mr. Trump suspended the effort. Calls by the Trump administration for support from European allies in policing the strait went nowhere.
Mr. Trump repeatedly threatened Iran with further attacks, but did not follow through.
The war with Iran has proved unpopular with the American public, including among Republicans. It drove up the prices of oil and gas and squeezed Washington’s Arab allies, which have borne the brunt of Iran’s retaliatory attacks.
In late April, as another of Mr. Trump’s deadlines for Iran to agree to American terms appeared set to expire, he decided to extend the cease-fire until “discussions are concluded, one way or the other.”
Mr. Trump kept up his threats, mostly on his Truth Social account, ranging from memes to statements that “the Clock is Ticking” for Iran.
Last week, Mr. Trump said that he was delaying another previously unannounced military offensive against Iran after requests from Gulf Arab leaders, given that “serious negotiations” were taking place.
Iran experts say the country’s leadership has emerged emboldened from the war, believing that the country had weathered an attempt to topple the Islamic Republic.
The leadership views time as on its side, analysts say, in part given their ability to rattle global energy prices.
Aaron Boxerman is a Times reporter covering Israel and Gaza. He is based in Jerusalem.
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