President Donald Trump has boasted about cutting off all financial support for Ukraine and tried to impose a surrender on terms many see as favorable for Russia. Yet, as we predicted two years ago, Ukraine has proven it doesn’t need it.
Just 15 months ago, in the Oval Office, Trump shouted at Ukraine’s PresidentVolodymyr Zelensky: “You’re not in a good position. You don’t have the cards right now. With us, you start having cards.”
Zelensky fired back, “I’m not playing cards. I’m very serious, Mr. President. I’m very serious… Of course we want to stop the war. But I said to you, with guarantees.” In the last year, it seems that Zelensky’s resolve was right. Ukraine has found some winning cards, both through its ingenuity in drone technology and through Russian President Vladimir Putin’s faltering economy, despite higher oil and gas prices and the unwise relaxation of energy sanctions on Russia by the U.S., which provided Moscow with a temporary lease on life.
Read more: Zelensky Hails Ukraine’s Growing Drone Capability After Massive Moscow Strike
On the battlefield, drones have been useful to Ukraine in three ways. First, they are effective at striking deep into Russia, penetrating supply lines, energy infrastructure and munitions factories; second, they save Ukrainian lives by reducing the military personnel at risk; and third, they shake Russian arrogance and confidence.
Some question whether this is a sustainable advantage as Russia plays catch-up, but we are told by senior Biden and Trump Administration sourcesthat Ukrainian drone and anti-drone defense technology are heavily reliant in part on unparalleled U.S. technology, which Russia does not have access to, such as Motorola’s Silvus infrastructure-less solutions, which are utilized by Ukraine to operate its drones. All of which suggests that Ukraine’s technology, innovation, and cost advantages are durable. In fact, it has been reported that the U.S. has directed billions of dollars in direct investments into Ukraine’s drone industry across both the Biden and Trump years.
Ukraine’s drones are striking Russian energy infrastructure
It is hard to overstate just how transformative drones have been for Ukraine’s position on the battlefield. First, with these powerful drones, designed and produced in Ukraine, it is now systematically striking high-value military and industrial targets located over 1,000 kilometers inside the Russian Federation, wreaking havoc on the logistics and supply chains that sustain the invasion. Recent operations have successfully targeted aviation bases in Voronezh and executed precision strikes on the VNIIR-Progress plant in Cheboksary—a facility nearly 1,000 kilometers from the border that manufactures vital electronic components for Russian Su-34 fighter-bombers and S-300 air defense systems. Furthermore, by methodically striking offshore Lukoil platforms in the Caspian Sea and major refineries in Saratov, as well as repeated bombardments of the Tuapse oil export terminal on the Black Sea, Ukraine is physically dismantling the energy infrastructure that funds the Kremlin’s war effort. Indeed, these drones have enabled Ukraine to bypass misguided restrictions from both the Biden and Trump administrations alike about using Western missiles to strike deep into Russia.
Second, Ukrainian drone strikes are severing crucial logistics chains within Russian-occupied territory, while preserving Ukrainian lives and precious military personnel, with technology enabling Ukrainian counterattacks to liberate those regions. Ukraine recently liberated over 400 square kilometers in the southern theater and recaptured significant sectors near Kupyansk, with independent military assessments reporting that Russia is suffering a net loss of occupied territory for the first time since 2024, simultaneously imposing catastrophic human costs on the invading forces. Total Russian casualties have now eclipsed 1.35 million personnel since the start of the war, according to Ukraine’s count, with Moscow losing upwards of 1,000 soldiers daily and, in the first five months of 2026 alone, sustaining over 141,000 casualties.
Third, Ukrainian drone strikes are catalyzing profound morale issues within Russia itself, methodically shattering the illusion of domestic security cultivated by the Kremlin, as the Kremlin tightens its grip over society, including through the suspension of popular messaging apps such as Telegram.
As Jake Sullivan, former National Security Advisor to President Biden, told us, “Something is clearly happening with respect to the Russian authorities and security services. They’re feeling the pressure, which is leading them to crack down on the internet and popular messaging apps”. Another glaring manifestation of the Kremlin’s increasing paranoia occurred during the May 9, 2026, Victory Day parade in Moscow. Historically utilized by Putin to project unassailable military might through massive displays of heavy weaponry, yet, for the first time in nearly two decades, the quintessential procession of tanks, ballistic missiles, and heavy armor was conspicuously absent from Red Square, replaced by mere videos of that military equipment—a move widely attributed to fears of Ukrainian drone strikes targeting the military hardware. Some intelligence reports even report that Putin and his inner circle have been forced to take heightened security precautions from the threat of Ukrainian drone strikes.
Russia’s projection of strength has been diminished
That is hardly the show of strength that Putin wishes to project to the world, further degrading Russia’s already fractured diplomatic and economic alliances. While higher oil prices have provided Russia’s battered economy with a temporary lease on life, not a single one of the over 1,200 global companies whose exits from Russia we helped accelerate has ever expressed interest in returning to Russia, with Russian assets and securities still largely radioactive within global markets amidst the illusion of economic resilience, as we extensively documented earlier this year.
Like a mercantile colony, all Putin has is a lot of land, raw materials, and psychopathic propaganda. The economic reality is that, despite Putin’s tough guy bluster and despite higher oil and gas prices as well as the unwise relaxation of energy sanctions on Russia, Putin’s house of cards is still more vulnerable than many realize.
As we revealed previously, for years now, Putin has been obfuscating how weak the Russian economy really is by hiding and fudging the numbers. Putin refuses to disclose major economic indicators as required by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). This ranges from foreign trade data to monthly output data on oil and gas, and central bank monetary base data. Nevertheless, there is no question that soaring oil and gas prices, as well as accelerating Russian oil sales, have bolstered Putin from what would have otherwise been imminent bankruptcy this year, as GDP growth forecasts tick upward from economic recession and contraction through the first quarter of 2026.
Even Putin’s much-ballyhooed summit with Xi Jinping in Beijing last week failed to result in much substantive economic or diplomatic deals despite some cosmetic rhetorical wordplay, with no breakthrough on Putin’s highly desired Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, and with Putin having to fall back on empty nuclear bluster.
The rise of the middle powers
In stark contrast, Ukraine is a desired defense partner with Arab countries flocking to sign defense agreements anchored in Ukraine’s unparalleled anti-drone defense know-how.
Ukraine’s strengthening alliances are a reminder that it has not merely survived the retraction of U.S. support; it has seized the strategic initiative, unleashed to strike deep inside Russia, exposing the fragility of Putin’s house of cards as Moscow bleeds troops, loses ground, and struggles to project even the illusion of strength to its wary allies. It also lends credence to Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s admonition that there is an emerging third polarity, with the European Union, United Kingdom and Canada standing strong with Ukrainian ingenuity as Trump’s priorities shift elsewhere.
According to the biblical account in 1 Samuel 17, Goliath was a giant terrorizing Israel and King Saul’s entire army. David, although much shorter than Goliath, refused the support of King Saul’s heavy armor. He advanced toward the taunting giant Goliath with only his shepherd’s staff, a leather sling, and five smooth stones. David killed Goliath by striking him in the forehead with a stone from a sling. With Russia 28 times the size of Ukraine, but around 60% covered in uninhabitable permafrost and not remotely an economic superpower, we may be witnessing a modern remake of this biblical saga. Even more impressive is the fact that David has overcome so many obstacles to this point.
As retired Lieutenant Gen. and former U.S. Ambassador to NATO Doug Lute told us, “The U.S., especially under Trump but to some extent under Biden as well, has pushed David into the fight against Goliath with one hand tied behind his back and contributed to the fact that David has had to continue the unfair fight for over four years.”
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