After President Trump’s crushing 2024 victory sent Democrats into panic mode, a new 2028 primary poll out this week shows the party rallying around two familiar, and deeply polarizing, figures: Kamala Harris and California Gov. Gavin Newsom.
The nationwide survey of 800 likely Democrat primary voters, conducted by Lake Research Partners from May 6-11, tested 13 potential Democratic contenders using a ranked choice voting simulation.
In the final ranked-choice matchup, failed 2024 presidential candidate Harris narrowly beat presumed presidential candidate Newsom52% to 48%, through the result fell within the poll’s margin of error.
But the topline numbers revealed a party still fractured and struggling to generate real enthusiasm after Trump became the first Republican nominee in 20 years to win the popular vote while steamrolling Democrats in the Electoral College.
Only 26% of respondents ranked Harris as their first choice. Newsom drew just 17%.
Rather than producing a fresh breakout star, Democrats appear stuck recycling the same national figures tied to the chaos and failures of the Biden era.
The ranked choice system helped rescue both candidates by allowing them to pick up second- and third-choice support from eliminated rivals.
Only 43% of voters initially picked Harris or Newsom first, but 80% ranked one or both somewhere in their top five choices, keeping their ballots active in later rounds.
Supporters of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortezwere more likely to back Harris as a fallback option, while voters supporting Pete Buttigieg, Sen. Mark Kelly, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Sen. Cory Booker leaned more toward Newsom.
Newsom has also increasingly adopted a more aggressive online style that mirrors Trump’s social media approach, a striking shift for liberals after years spent attacking Trump’s political tactics..
The poll found strong Democratic support for ranked choice voting itself, with 63% backing its use in the 2028 presidential primary.
Support rose to 70% after voters completed the exercise, and 84% said ranking candidates was easy.
The poll landed alongside a brutal Democratic National Committee “autopsy” released Thursday that detailed how badly Republicans outmaneuvered Democrats in 2024.
The draft report, written by former Bill Clinton strategist Paul Rivera, blasted Democrats for relying too heavily on “negative partisanship” to win races. The autopsy also blamed allies of former President Joe Biden for failing to properly prepare Harris after Biden abandoned his reelection campaign in July 2024.
According to the report, the White House requested polling before the 2022 midterms on “how Dr. [Jill] Biden could support her husband as president,” while “no similar research was conducted to support the Vice President.” The report also admitted Democrats failed to effectively counter Republican attacks showing Harris as an ineffective “border czar” during Biden’s immigration crisis.
In one of the report’s sharpest admissions, Rivera concluded: “The GOP’s victory in 2024 largely came down to its ability to learn more from President [Barack] Obama’s victory [in 2008] than Democrats did.”
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