SpaceX’s IPO prospectus is a treasure trove.
On some level, that’s expected: Elon Musk (the world’s richest person) and his businesses have long been their own landscape of lightning rods. But SpaceX has always especially captured imaginations. The company’s been around since 2002 and for decades has been revamping the once-impenetrable space economy. And the headlines have always been evocative: Reusable rockets! Colonies on Mars! Starlink everywhere!
But SpaceX itself is also, let’s remember, a Frankensteined company in its own right: Rockets may be the headline, but SpaceX is also comprised of its massive Starlink business, the artist formerly known as Twitter, Musk’s AI outfit xAI, and perhaps eventually even AI coding mega-unicorn Cursor.
Here’s what most stood out to me as I combed through the go-public filing the first time.
Kardashev Type II civilization… This S-1 has a pretty legendary glossary of terms. Consider: Kardashev Type II, which “refers to a civilization that harnesses the full energy output of its local star, like our Sun, to power unprecedented growth and sustain the civilization’s existence.” Or: “lunar mass driver,” which is “a launch system that we intend to build on the Moon’s surface that will be designed to use electromagnetic acceleration to propel payloads into space without the use of rockets.” I’m not made of stone, and that’s cool.
Twitter isn’t exactly crushing it… Apologies, X. The social media platform, which Musk dramatically acquired in 2022 for $44 billion, saw its advertising revenue decline by $595 million, as its revenue for 2024 dropped by 11.5%. The filing is clear: “The decrease in advertising revenue was due to the loss of advertising partners for X.” But, on the bright side, there was an increase in subscription revenue of $157 million.
Cursor check… SpaceX’s prospective $60 billion acquisition of embattled AI coding juggernaut Cursor is not guaranteed, but clearly plays a key role in the story SpaceX is telling the public markets about its place in the AI landscape. We also got a sneak peek into Cursor, which at the end of its fiscal year had $3.1 billion in total assets—$2.7 billion in cash and about $550 million in liabilities. Cursor also would get a $1.5 billion termination fee, should the deal go bust.
This is still Musk’s show… Musk currently has 85% voting power thanks to Class B shares, and will retain his iron grip post-IPO. Here’s the exact language, if that’s your thing: “Mr. Musk will have the power to control the outcome of matters requiring shareholder approval, including election of all our directors.” Translation: Elon’s in charge. There are examples of other “controlled” companies in the public markets, like Meta.
Money moves… There’s really so much here. Some quick facts to ruminate on: Starlink is financially bolstering the business. Anthropic is apparently paying SpaceX a whopping $15 billion a year. (This is oddly delicious: Musk once called Anthropic “evil.”) And Musk’s pay package is not only tied to stock price, but to the establishment of a colony on Mars, with a minimum of one million people.
This looks to be, far and away, the largest IPO ever (if reports are true). The valuation math is extremely aggressive: we’re talking about a valuation that’ll supposedly be as high as $2 trillion, for a money-guzzling business that generated about $18.7 billion in 2025 revenue. That’s a tough sell, at least to me. But it’s possible—even likely—the red flags won’t matter and demand will soar. So, caveat emptor.
Let’s all prepare for liftoff.
See you tomorrow,
Allie Garfinkle X: @agarfinks Email: [email protected]
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