President Trump has made several endorsements in Kentucky, but the Fourth Congressional District is a test of his influence — and his ability to oust incumbents as a form of political retribution.
In that district, at the northern edge of the state, Representative Thomas Massie, a vocal critic of Mr. Trump, is defending his seat against a Republican primary challenge from Ed Gallrein, a former Navy SEAL whom Mr. Trump recruited into the race.
The sprawling district, which contains at least part of 21 counties and has about 600,000 registered voters, including more than 300,000 Republicans, features several key battlegrounds.
Boone, Kenton and Campbell counties — the heavily populated Cincinnati suburbs — contain over half of the district’s Republican voters and could offer early indications of where the race is headed. Mr. Massie’s brand of libertarian-leaning Republican politics has helped him build a base of support in these areas in previous elections. The population density can help a candidate build a lead that is hard to overcome by doing well elsewhere.
Mr. Gallrein’s home base is Shelby County, which is in the western part of the district. He will likely do well there, and could build additional support in the rural counties to the east, including Lewis County, where Mr. Massie lives.
Results in the Fourth District will start to come in shortly after polls close at 6 p.m. Eastern. (Parts of western Kentucky, outside of the Fourth District, are on Central time, meaning some of the rest of the state’s results will come in after 7 p.m. Eastern.) Most of the votes reported in the first hour will be ballots cast early in-person and by mail, with ballots cast on Election Day — which could take much longer to fully report — most likely making up the bulk of the total votes cast.
The Fourth District race also factors into the state’s Republican Senate primary, where Mr. Trump has endorsed Representative Andy Barr over Daniel Cameron, a former Kentucky attorney general. Mr. Barr, riding a wave of momentum since getting Mr. Trump’s backing, has thrown his support behind Mr. Gallrein, with Mr. Cameron staying largely neutral in the race — a stance that could play well with Mr. Massie’s supporters.
To counter Mr. Barr’s momentum, Mr. Cameron will need to do well among urban and suburban voters in Jefferson, the state’s most populous county and the location of Louisville, where Mr. Cameron was based during his time as attorney general. He has also made campaign stops in western Kentucky in the last weeks of the campaign, including in Paducah in McCracken County and Bowling Green in Warren County.
Mr. Barr represents Kentucky’s Sixth District, which contains Fayette County, which includes Lexington as well as its surrounding suburbs. Winning there would narrow Mr. Cameron’s path to victory. Mr. Trump has waded into that district’s Republican primary race as well, backing Ralph Alvarado, the front-runner in polls.
Christine Zhang is a Times reporter specializing in graphics and data journalism.
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