The Post’s Erich Richter makes his picks for Sunday’s and Monday’s NFL Week 13 slate.
SUNDAY
Falcons (-2.5) over JETS
Kirk Cousins isn’t great, but he’s better than Michael Penix Jr.
The Jets beat themselves last week against the Ravens, who look like they may need a massive change this offseason. Put plainly, the Jets are good at losing games, and the Falcons should be able to run the ball enough with Bijan Robinson to snag a victory.
49ers -5 over BROWNS
I refuse to buy high on Shedeur Sanders. Sanders had a positive game script last week, where the Browns were four-point underdogs to the Raiders.
There’s zero reason that the line should have moved only one point against an 8-4 49er team. Cleveland’s defense is solid and could keep them in this game, but if they go down early, Sanders is liable to throw multiple interceptions.
TITANS +6.5 over Jaguars
My model has the spread of this game 20.88 to 16.74, so there’s a bit of value on the Titans here. The Titans are the No. 32-rated team in DVOA, so this is certainly a hold-your-nose spot, but given the Jaguars’ No. 24-ranked offense in yards per play, it’s hard for me to have too much confidence in the Jaguars to cover a touchdown here.
Texans +4.5 over COLTS
There’s tons of uncertainty at quarterback here. Daniel Jones has a broken fibula, but is apparently healthy enough to continue playing. CJ Stroud may or may not play, but I’ll trust Houston’s defense to slow down Jonathan Taylor here. The Texans are No. 7 in the NFL against the run in DVOA. I think the Texans could win regardless of who is under center.
Saints +6 over DOLPHINS
So the Saints go from two-point favorites over the Falcons to six-point underdogs to the equally bad Dolphins? If you’re taking the Dolphins -6, you’re just not paying attention.
The Saints are ranked No. 19 in the NFL in defensive DVOA, ahead of the Dolphins. Neither team is good, but the Saints shouldn’t be this big an underdog, even without Alvin Kamara. My model has the Saints favored 21.9 to 20.57.
Cardinals +3 over BUCS
Baker Mayfield sounds likely to play, and he’s a gamer, so I expect him to be out there. But why are they still favored in this game by a field goal? Arizona has the No. 10-rated defense per DVOA, and its offense, while massively deficient, really needs to avoid turnovers to keep this one close.
I’d guess that we get a field goal game either way here, and I’ll take the Cardinals.
Rams -10 over PANTHERS
There are games to back Bryce Young and games to avoid him, this is the latter. Los Angeles is an all-star team on the defensive side of the ball. The Rams are allowing just 3.9 yards per carry this season (No. 5 overall) and their 4.6 yards per play allowed is ranked No. 6 in the league.
The Panthers usually cover games that they can score in.
This isn’t one of them.
Rams by two touchdowns.
SEAHAWKS -10.5 Vikings
Max Brosmer starts at quarterback for the Vikings, and he may be an upgrade over J.J. McCarthy. The Vikings are currently rated No. 18 on defense and 29 on offense in DVOA, while the Seahawks are No. 2 in DVOA.
They love blowing teams out at home and this is a spot for their defense to laugh their way to a dominant win.
STEELERS +4 over Bills
How much more can Josh Allen really do for this team? Buffalo is missing both tackles Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown, a disaster spot for a Steelers defense that is actually improving as the season has progressed.
TJ Watt and Alex Highsmith are going to be breathing down Allen’s neck all night long in Pittsburgh.
CHARGERS -9.5 over Raiders
The Raiders are firing everyone in an attempt to right the ship in Las Vegas. Not exactly what you’re looking for when placing a wager on a team, so I won’t bite here. My model has the Chargers as 11-point favorites so since we get to clear a key number of 10, I’m fine with the Chargers here.
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Broncos -6.5 over COMMANDERS
My model has the Broncos favored by nine points here. So the defense is the story here. They are rated No. 4 in defensive DVOA and No. 7 overall, while the Commanders have been in the tank behind Marcus Mariota. There’s no way I’m trusting their backup quarterback to keep this one close.
Giants +7.5 over PATRIOTS
I’ll happily take Jaxson Dart here against an overrated Patriots squad. New England was lucky to beat the Falcons by one point a few weeks ago when a missed extra point ruined their quest for a victory.
New England was also the beneficiary of an pick six to beat a depleted Bengals squad. My model has the spread dead-on, but I’ll take the Giants here, and I think they win outright.
Last week: 7-3-2
Season: 80-80-3
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
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